Delivering connectivity to a service area by aerial vehicles using probabilistic methods

A computer system comprising:

• a memory;
• one or more processors configured to perform operations for controlling a group of aerial vehicles to meet a connectivity service objective, the one or more processors configured to:
• cause two or more aerial vehicles in the group to arrive at a target service area during a given arrival time window associated with the connectivity service objective, the connectivity service objective comprising a desired probability of service coverage of the target service area;
• calculate a probability of service coverage of the target service area for the two or more aerial vehicles for a first time period after the two or more aerial vehicles are expected to arrive at the target service area;
• determine whether the probability of service coverage meets a probability of coverage threshold;
• and
• cause the two or more aerial vehicles to operate according to a station seeking flight policy during the first time period.