System and method of non-linear probabilistic forecasting to foster amplified collective intelligence of networked human groups

A system for amplifying a collective intelligence of a networked human group engaged in real-time probabilistic forecasting of a future event having a first possible outcome and a second possible outcome, the system comprising:

• a plurality of computing devices, each including a graphical display, a user interface, a collaboration application running on the computing device, and configured for network communication;
• and
• a server in networked communication with each of the plurality of computing devices, a server application running on the server, wherein the system is configured to:
• display, on each of the computing devices, a forecasting prompt and a dynamic user interface for capturing a user's dynamic response to the forecasting prompt, wherein the dynamic user interface includes:
• a user-manipulatable marker that can be moved by the user across a range of positions between a first limit and a second limit, the position of the marker with respect to each of the two limits defining the forecasted probability of each of the two possible outcomes of the future event,
• a first reward value visually associated with the first possible outcome, the first reward value interactively responsive to the position of the user manipulatable marker, and
• a second reward value visually associated with the second possible outcome, the second reward value interactively responsive to the position of the user manipulatable marker;
• during a first time period, for each computing device repeatedly update the first and second reward values in response to user manipulation of the marker, wherein a non-linear model is used for updating the first and second reward values in response to linear manipulation of the maker between the first limit and the second limit;
• during the first time period, collect and store data from each of the plurality of computing devices reflecting the user's manipulation of the marker during the first time period in response to the forecasting prompt;
• after the first time period has ended, display a perturbation stimulus on each of the plurality of computing device, the perturbation stimulus based at least in part on the data collected from the plurality of computing devices during the first time period;
• during a second time period, collect and store additional data from each of the plurality of computing devices reflecting each user's manipulation of the marker during the second time period in response to the forecasting prompt and the displayed perturbation stimulus;
• and
• after the second time period has ended, calculate a final group forecast based at least in part on the data collected from the plurality of computing devices during the first and second time periods.