Computer-implemented method and system for evaluating uncertainty in trajectory prediction

A system for evaluating uncertainty of a predicted trajectory infrastructure, the system comprising:

• an aircraft intent description inference module configured to
• collect a plurality of data sets from a predicted trajectory;
• provide an aircraft intent description based on the predicted trajectory;
• an inputs uncertainty quantification module configured to
• select both a point in time and one or more variables among the collected plurality of data sets as sources of uncertainty;
• represent each selected variable at the selected point in time as a uni-variable polynomial expansion;
• represent each non-selected variable by a single point;
• and
• combine selected and non-selected variables into a multi-variable polynomial chaos expansion representing a stochastic prediction of an aircraft's trajectory at the selected point in time and a measurement of a sensitivity of the prediction to each of the selected one or more sources of uncertainty.

A computer program product for evaluating uncertainty of a predicted trajectory infrastructure, the computer program product comprising a computer readable storage medium having program instructions embodied therewith, wherein the computer readable storage medium is not a transitory medium per se, the program instructions being executable by a processor to cause the processor to perform a method comprising:

• collecting a plurality of data sets from a predicted trajectory comprising:
• providing an aircraft intent description based on the predicted trajectory;
• selecting both a point in time and one or more variables among the collected plurality of data sets as sources of uncertainty;
• representing each selected variable at the selected point in time as a uni-variable polynomial expansion;
• representing each non-selected variable by a single point;
• and
• combining selected and non-selected variables into a multi-variable polynomial chaos expansion representing a stochastic prediction of the aircraft's trajectory at the selected point in time and a measurement of a sensitivity of the prediction to each of the selected one or more sources of uncertainty.