Dynamic promotion analytics

A method for determining whether to provide a particular offer, from a promotion program, to a consumer device associated with a particular consumer, via an electronic communication amongst other offers, utilizing an iteratively dynamically updated predictive model, by both (i) determining that an amount of performance data meets a reliability threshold and (ii) determining that an attribute value of an attribute of the promotion meets an acceptance threshold by determining a predicted probability that a consumer will accept the particular offer, the promotion program including a promotion program duration comprising a first period during which first period offers are provided and a second period during which second period offers are provided, the second period being subsequent in time to the first period, the method comprising:

• deriving, via a processor, from the particular promotion, a first attribute value of a first attribute;
• generating, using a historical predictive model, a historical predicted probability that the particular consumer will accept the particular offer from the promotion program, wherein the historical predictive model is configured to output the historical predicted probability based on performance data from one or more different promotion programs,
• wherein generating the historical predicted probability comprises:
• correlating the first attribute value to historical predicted acceptances of offers derived from performance data of offers from the one or more different promotion programs;
• generating, using a promotion program predictive model, a promotion program predicted probability that the particular consumer will accept the particular offer, wherein the promotion program predictive model is configured to output the program promotion predicted probability based on performance data from the promotion program,
• wherein generating the promotion program predicted probability comprises:
• determining a first program promotion predicted probability value, the first program promotion predicted probability value correlated to previous promotions from the promotion program having values of the first attribute that satisfy the first attribute value;
• determining whether an amount of performance data is greater than a minimum threshold amount;
• in an instance in which the determination is made that the amount of performance data is not greater than the minimum threshold, calculating a final predicted probability that the particular consumer will accept the particular offer to be a function of only the historical predicted probability while disregarding the promotion program predicted probability;
• calculating whether the amount of performance data is greater than a second minimum threshold in an instance in which the amount of performance data is greater than the minimum threshold;
• in an instance in which the amount of performance data is greater than the minimum threshold and is greater than the second minimum threshold, calculating the final predicted probability that the particular consumer will accept the particular offer to be a function of only the promotion program predicted probability while disregarding the historical predicted probability;
• in an instance in which the amount of performance data is greater than the minimum threshold and is not greater than the second minimum threshold, calculating the final predicted probability that the particular consumer will accept the particular offer to be a function of both the promotion program predicted probability and the historical predicted probability;
• and
• providing the particular offer, via the electronic communication, to the consumer device associated with the particular consumer, only upon a determination that the final predicted probability that the particular consumer will accept the particular offer is within a predefined delta.

A computer program product for determining whether to provide a particular offer, from a promotion program, to a consumer device associated with a particular consumer, via an electronic communication amongst other offers, utilizing an iteratively dynamically updated predictive model, by both (i) determining that an amount of performance data meets a reliability threshold and (ii) determining that an attribute value of an attribute of the promotion meets an acceptance threshold by determining a predicted probability that a consumer will accept the particular offer, the promotion program including a promotion program duration comprising a first period during which first period offers are provided and a second period during which second period offers are provided, the second period being subsequent in time to the first period, the computer program product, stored on a non-transitory computer readable medium, comprising instructions that when executed on one or more computers cause the one or more computers to perform operations the operations comprising:

• deriving, via a processor, from the particular promotion, a first attribute value of a first attribute;
• generating, using a historical predictive model, a historical predicted probability that the particular consumer will accept the particular offer from the promotion program, wherein the historical predictive model is configured to output the historical predicted probability based on performance data from one or more different promotion programs,
• wherein generating the historical predicted probability comprises:
• correlating the first attribute value to historical predicted acceptances of offers derived from performance data of offers from the one or more different promotion programs;
• generating, using a promotion program predictive model, a promotion program predicted probability that the particular consumer will accept the particular offer, wherein the promotion program predictive model is configured to output the program promotion predicted probability based on performance data from the promotion program,
• wherein generating the promotion program predicted probability comprises:
• determining a first program promotion predicted probability value, the first program promotion predicted probability value correlated to previous promotions from the promotion program having values of the first attribute that satisfy the first attribute value;
• determining whether an amount of performance data is greater than a minimum threshold amount;
• in an instance in which the determination is made that the amount of performance data is not greater than the minimum threshold, calculating a final predicted probability that the particular consumer will accept the particular offer to be a function of only the historical predicted probability while disregarding the promotion program predicted probability;
• calculating whether the amount of performance data is greater than a second minimum threshold in an instance in which the amount of performance data is greater than the minimum threshold;
• in an instance in which the amount of performance data is greater than the minimum threshold and is greater than the second minimum threshold, calculating the final predicted probability that the particular consumer will accept the particular offer to be a function of only the promotion program predicted probability while disregarding the historical predicted probability;
• in an instance in which the amount of performance data is greater than the minimum threshold and is not greater than the second minimum threshold, calculating the final predicted probability that the particular consumer will accept the particular offer to be a function of both the promotion program predicted probability and the historical predicted probability;
• and
• providing the particular offer, via the electronic communication, to the consumer device associated with the particular consumer, only upon a determination that the final predicted probability that the particular consumer will accept the particular offer is within a predefined delta.

An apparatus for determining whether to provide a particular offer, from a promotion program, to a consumer device associated with a particular consumer, via an electronic communication amongst other offers, utilizing an iteratively dynamically updated predictive model, by both (i) determining that an amount of performance data meets a reliability threshold and (ii) determining that an attribute value of an attribute of the promotion meets an acceptance threshold by determining a predicted probability that a consumer will accept the particular offer, the promotion program including a promotion program duration comprising a first period during which first period offers are provided and a second period during which second period offers are provided, the second period being subsequent in time to the first period, the apparatus comprising:

• one or more memories configured to store one or more consumer profiles, promotion program data of offers relating to the promotion program, and historical data of offers relating to different promotion programs;
• and
• a processor in communication with the one or more memories, the processor configured to:
• derive, via a processor, from the particular promotion, a first attribute value of a first attribute;
• generate, using a historical predictive model, a historical predicted probability that the particular consumer will accept the particular offer from the promotion program, wherein the historical predictive model is configured to output the historical predicted probability based on performance data from one or more different promotion programs,
• wherein generating the historical predicted probability comprises:
• correlating the first attribute value to historical predicted acceptances of offers derived from performance data of offers from the one or more different promotion programs;
• generate, using a promotion program predictive model, a promotion program predicted probability that the particular consumer will accept the particular offer, wherein the promotion program predictive model is configured to output the program promotion predicted probability based on performance data from the promotion program,
• wherein generating the promotion program predicted probability comprises:
• determining a first program promotion predicted probability value, the first program promotion predicted probability value correlated to previous promotions from the promotion program having values of the first attribute that satisfy the first attribute value;
• determine whether an amount of performance data is greater than a minimum threshold amount;
• in an instance in which the determination is made that the amount of performance data is not greater than the minimum threshold, calculate a final predicted probability that the particular consumer will accept the particular offer to be a function of only the historical predicted probability while disregarding the promotion program predicted probability;
• calculate whether the amount of performance data is greater than a second minimum threshold in an instance in which the amount of performance data is greater than the minimum threshold;
• in an instance in which the amount of performance data is greater than the minimum threshold and is greater than the second minimum threshold, calculate the final predicted probability that the particular consumer will accept the particular offer to be a function of only the promotion program predicted probability while disregarding the historical predicted probability;
• in an instance in which the amount of performance data is greater than the minimum threshold and is not greater than the second minimum threshold, calculate the final predicted probability that the particular consumer will accept the particular offer to be a function of both the promotion program predicted probability and the historical predicted probability;
• and
• provide the particular offer, via the electronic communication, to the consumer device associated with the particular consumer, only upon a determination that the final predicted probability that the particular consumer will accept the particular offer is within a predefined delta.