Methods and apparatus to model consumer choice sourcing

An apparatus to calculate a choice probability, comprising:

• a multinomial logit (MNL) engine to add a set of products to a base MNL model;
• an aggregate building engine to build an aggregate model by generating a number of copies of the base MNL model, the number of copies based on a number of corresponding ones of products in the set of products;
• a sourcing modifier to proportionally modify interrelationships between dissimilar ones of the corresponding ones of products in the set of products by inserting a product offset value in respective ones of the number of copies of the base MNL model, the product offset values generated by subtracting sourcing effect values in the aggregate model from item utility parameters, the product offset values associated with respective ones of products in the set of products;
• and
• a simulation engine to calculate the choice probability for the corresponding ones of the products in the set of products based on the product offset values, at least one of the MNL engine, the aggregate building engine, the sourcing modifier, or the simulation engine including a processor.

A tangible machine-readable storage medium comprising instructions that, when executed, cause a processor to, at least:

• add a set of products to a base MNL model;
• build an aggregate model by generating a number of copies of the base MNL model, the number of copies based on a number of corresponding ones of products in the set of products;
• proportionally modify interrelationships between dissimilar ones of the corresponding ones of products in the set of products by inserting a product offset value in respective ones of the number of copies of the base MNL model, the product offset values generated by subtracting sourcing effect values in the aggregate model from item utility parameters, the product offset values associated with respective ones of products in the set of products;
• and
• calculate a choice probability for the corresponding ones of the products in the set of products based on the product offset values.

An apparatus to calculate choice probability, the apparatus comprising:

• means for adding to add a set of products to a base MNL model;
• means for building to build an aggregate model by generating a number of copies of the base MNL model, the number of copies based on a number of corresponding ones of products in the set of products;
• means for modifying to proportionally modify interrelationships between dissimilar ones of the corresponding ones of products in the set of products by inserting a product offset value in respective ones of the number of copies of the base MNL model, the product offset values generated by subtracting sourcing effect values in the aggregate model from item utility parameters, the product offset values associated with respective ones of products in the set of products;
• and
• means for calculating to calculate the choice probability for the corresponding ones of the products in the set of products based on the product offset values.