Damage probability calculation device and damage probability calculation method

A damage probability calculation method for predicting a damage probability in an evaluation target region of a machine, comprising:

• computing strength distributions including the mean, the standard deviation and a certainty factor of the strength of a material used for the evaluation target region on the basis of test data of the strength of the material;
• computing stress distributions including the mean, the standard deviation and a certainty factor of stresses input to the evaluation target region on the basis of operation data of the machine acquired through a sensor;
• and
• computing damage probability distributions indicating distributions of damage probabilities of the evaluation target region on the basis of the strength distributions and the stress distributions.

A damage probability calculation device for calculating a damage probability in an evaluation target region of a machine, comprising:

• a strength distribution computation unit configured to compute strength distributions including a mean, a standard deviation and a certainty factor of the strength of a material used for the evaluation target region on the basis of test data of the strength of the material with respect to temperatures;
• a temperature distribution computation unit configured to compute temperature distributions including the mean, the standard deviation and the certainty factor of temperatures input to the evaluation target region on the basis of operation data of the machine acquired through a sensor;
• and
• a damage probability distribution computation unit configured to compute damage probability distributions indicating distributions of damage probabilities of the evaluation target region on the basis of the strength distributions and the temperature distributions.