Forecasting for Resource Allocation

A system comprising:

• a processor;
• and
• a memory coupled to the processor, the memory storing instructions executable by the processor to perform a method, the method comprising:
• receiving operating data from a resource;
• applying periodicity tests to the received operating data using a plurality of sketches of time series of prior operating data, the periodicity tests generating periodic components;
• applying a plurality of regression models to the received operating data, each regression model being applied over a different time scale;
• computing a trend model using the periodic components and the trend component;
• determining a random process describing the historical evolution of the trend model;
• and
• calculating and providing a mean prediction, an upper bound, and a lower bound for resource utilization at a future time using the trend model and a predicted distribution.

A system comprising:

• means for receiving operating data from a resource;
• means for applying periodicity tests to the received operating data using a plurality of sketches of time series of prior operating data, the periodicity tests generating periodic components;
• means for applying a plurality of regression models to the received operating data, each regression model being applied over a different time scale;
• means for computing a trend model using the periodic components and the trend component;
• means for determining a random process describing the historical evolution of the trend model;
• and
• means for calculating and providing a mean prediction, an upper bound, and a lower bound for resource utilization at a future time using the trend model and a predicted distribution.