# US 2019/0171990 A1 · Using historical plant-available water metrics to forecast crop yield

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- Number: US 2019/0171990 A1
- Document ID: US20190171990A1
- Status: Published application
- Kind: A1
- Application number: 16/140,220
- Filed: 2018-09-24
- Published: 2019-06-06
- Earliest claimed: 2017-12-06
- Assignees: South Country Equipment Ltd.
- Applicants: South Country Equipment Ltd.
- Inventors: Ryan Hutchison; Kendall Gee
- Web page: https://patentgrep.com/patent/US20190171990A1

## CPC

- G06Q 10/06375: {Prediction of business process outcome or impact based on a proposed change}
- A01B 79/005: {Precision agriculture}
- A01G 25/16: Control of watering
- G06Q 50/02: Agriculture; Fishing; Forestry; Mining
- A01G 25/167: {Control by humidity of the soil itself or of devices simulating soil or of the atmosphere; Soil humidity sensors}
- Y02A 40/10: in agriculture
- G06Q: INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- A01B: SOIL WORKING IN AGRICULTURE OR FORESTRY; PARTS, DETAILS, OR ACCESSORIES OF AGRICULTURAL MACHINES OR IMPLEMENTS, IN GENERAL (making or covering furrows or holes for sowing, planting or manuring A01C5/00; mowers convertible to soil working apparatus or capable of soil working A01D42/04; mowers combined with soil working implements A01D43/12; soil working for engineering purposes E01, E02, E21)
- A01G: HORTICULTURE; CULTIVATION OF VEGETABLES, FLOWERS, RICE, FRUIT, VINES, HOPS OR SEAWEED; FORESTRY; WATERING (picking of fruits, vegetables, hops or the like A01D46/00; propagating unicellular algae C12N1/12)
- Y02A: TECHNOLOGIES FOR ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE

## Abstract

A method of forecasting crop yield for a selected field crop planted at a field site based on the plant-available water within a growing season. A crop water use efficiency factor is established based on historical seasonal available water, which can be applied to current season precipitation and available water estimates. The method of estimating yield potential allows for accurate yield potential forecasting using only precipitation values and current plant-available moisture. Optimal embodiments of the method are practiced using a forecasting software component on a computer. Results of the forecasting method can be displayed using different computer software interfaces.

## Claims

### Claim 1

A method of estimating yield potential (YP) for a selected crop growing at a field site for a current growing season having a planting date and a completion date, said method comprising:
a. in a capture step conducted at a sample date, capturing at least one moisture reading in relation to a sample depth within a rooting depth of the field site;
b. in a calculation step:
i. using the at least one moisture reading captured in relation to the rooting depth and other necessary method parameters, calculating the raw soil water value (WRaw) within the rooting depth, being the amount of plant-available water within the rooting depth at the sample date;
ii. calculating the total available moisture (MTotal) using the raw soil water value (WRaw), the precipitation received (PR) at the field site to date within the current growing season, and the forecast precipitation (PF) at the field site for the remainder of the current growing season;
iii. calculating the yield potential (YP) for the crop in the growing season based on the total available moisture (MTotal).

### Claim 2 (depends on 1)

The method of claim 1 wherein the moisture reading for a sample depth is determined using a manually extracted soil sample.

### Claim 3 (depends on 1)

The method of claim 1 wherein the moisture reading for a sample depth is captured using at least one in-ground moisture sensor.

### Claim 4 (depends on 1)

The method of claim 1 wherein the calculation step comprises:
a. determining at least the following method parameters in advance of the determination of the raw soil water value (WRaw):
i. the historical seasonal precipitation (PHist), being the total of daily average precipitation amounts for a calendar date range defined by the planting date to the completion date of the current growing season, based on data stored within a historical precipitation data source containing daily average precipitation amounts for the field site for each calendar day of at least one previous growing season;
ii. an initial moisture factor (MF) for the selected crop, being the required amount of available water for the selected crop to establish initial crop growth;
iii. a historical yield (YHist) for the selected crop; and
iv. a permanent wilting point (WP) of the field site, being the inferior limit of crop available water in the soil of the field site;
b. calculating the yield potential (YP) by:
i. calculating a crop water use efficiency factor (FUE) using the formula:
F
UE
=
Y
Hist
P
Hist
-
MF
ii. determining the precipitation received (PR) at the field site from the planting date to the calculation date, based on data stored within a current precipitation data source containing daily actual precipitation amounts for the field site for each calendar day of the current growing season;
iii. determining the forecast precipitation (PF) at the field site from the calculation date to the completion date;
iv. calculating the total available moisture (MTotal) using the formula:
MTotal=((WRaw−WP)+PR+PF)−MF
v. calculating the yield potential (YP) using the formula:
YP=MTotal*FUE

### Claim 5

The method of 4 wherein the forecast precipitation (PF) is calculated from the corresponding calendar date range from the calculation date to the completion date in the historical precipitation data source.

### Claim 6 (depends on 4)

The method of claim 4 wherein the forecast precipitation (PF) is identified from future precipitation forecasts.

### Claim 7 (depends on 4)

The method of claim 4 wherein the historical precipitation data source contains precipitation data from at least one precipitation sensor proximate to the field site.

### Claim 8 (depends on 4)

The method of claim 4 wherein the historical precipitation data source contains precipitation data for more than one previous growing season and averages the multiple previous years precipitation readings for each date within the calendar year.

### Claim 9 (depends on 4)

The method of claim 4 wherein the current precipitation data source comprises precipitation data from at least one precipitation sensor proximate to the field site.

### Claim 10 (depends on 4)

The method of claim 4 wherein:
a. the method parameters further comprise a subjective agronomic factor (FAg), having a default value of 1, adjusted for any additional agronomic variables which would alter crop water usage in the current growing season; and
b. the yield potential (YP) is calculated using the modified formula:
YP=MTotal*FUE*FAg

### Claim 11 (depends on 10)

The method of claim 10 wherein the additional agronomic variables used to establish the subjective agronomic factor (FAg) are selected from the group of:
a. field stresses for the field site;
b. soil test values for the field site;
c. planned fertilizer application rates for the field site;
d. the planned timing for fertilizer application within the current growing season;
e. details of planned chemical applications at the field site; and
f. specific growing characteristics of the selected crop.

### Claim 12 (depends on 4)

The method of claim 4 wherein the completion date is determined using the forecasted days to maturity for the crop.

### Claim 13 (depends on 4)

The method of claim 4 wherein the completion date is adjusted during the growing season based on actual crop growth completion or other factors.

### Claim 14

A method of establishing a crop water use efficiency factor (FUE) which can be used to transform the total available moisture for a selected crop at a field site in a current growing season to a forecast yield potential within the current growing season, said method comprising:
a. determining at least the following method parameters:
i. the historical seasonal precipitation (PHist), being the total of daily average precipitation amounts for a calendar date range defined by the planting date to the completion date of the current growing season, based on data stored within a historical precipitation data source containing daily average precipitation amounts for the field site for each calendar day of at least one previous growing season;
ii. an initial moisture factor (MF) for the selected crop, being the required amount of available water for the selected crop to establish initial crop growth;
iii. a historical yield (YHist) for the selected crop;
b. determining the crop water use efficiency factor (FUE) using the formula:
F
UE
=
Y
Hist
P
Hist
-
MF
whereby said crop water use efficiency factor can be used to forecast yield potential for a selected crop in a current growing season by multiplying the total available moisture for the current growing season with said crop water use efficiency factor.

### Claim 15 (depends on 14)

The method of claim 14 wherein the method is executed by a computer software program on a computer.

### Claim 16

A method of using a computer to estimate yield potential (YP) for a selected crop growing at a field site for a current growing season having a planting date and a completion date, wherein the computer comprises a forecasting software component within the memory of the computer capable of facilitating the necessary data transactions of the method and a user display via which the results of the method can be displayed to a user, the method comprising, by operation of the computer and the forecasting software component, executing the steps of:
a. using at least one moisture reading captured in relation to a capture depth within a rooting depth of the field site and other necessary method parameters, calculating the raw soil water value (WRaw) within the rooting depth, being the amount of plant-available water within the rooting depth at the sample date;
b. calculating the yield potential (YP) for the crop in the growing season based on the combination of the total inseason precipitation and the raw soil water value, being the total seasonal plant-available water for the crop; and
c. displaying the calculated yield potential (YP) for the crop to a user of the computer.

### Claim 17 (depends on 16)

The method of claim 16 wherein the moisture reading for a sample depth is determined using a manually extracted soil sample.

### Claim 18 (depends on 16)

The method of claim 16 wherein the moisture reading for a sample depth is captured using at least one in-ground moisture sensor.

### Claim 19 (depends on 16)

The method of claim 16 wherein:
a. the computer further comprises a user input interface to allow a user to provide to the computer for storage or use at least the following method parameters in respect of the selected crop and the field site in advance of the calculation of the raw soil water value (WRaw):
i. a calculation date being the effective date of the estimate calculation;
ii. an initial moisture factor (MF) for the selected crop, being the required amount of available water for the selected crop to establish initial crop growth;
iii. a historical yield (YHist) for the selected crop; and
iv. a permanent wilting point (WP) of the field site, being the inferior limit of crop available water in the soil of the field site;
b. calculation of the yield potential (YP) comprises:
i. determining the historical seasonal precipitation (PHist), being the total of daily average precipitation amounts for a calendar date range defined by the planting date to the completion date of the current growing season, based on data stored within a historical precipitation data source containing daily average precipitation amounts for the field site for each calendar day of at least one previous growing season;
ii. determining the precipitation received (PR) at the field site from the planting date to the calculation date, based on data stored within a current precipitation data source containing daily actual precipitation amounts for the field site for each calendar day of the current growing season;
iii. determining the forecast precipitation (PF) at the field site from the calculation date to the completion date;
iv. calculating a crop water use efficiency factor (FUE) using the formula:
F
UE
=
Y
Hist
P
Hist
-
MF
v. calculating the total available moisture (MTotal) using the formula:
MTotal=((WRaw−WP)+PR+PF)−MF
and
vi. calculating the yield potential (YP) using the formula:
YP=MTotal*FUE

### Claim 20 (depends on 19)

The method of claim 19 wherein the historical precipitation data source contains precipitation data from at least one precipitation sensor proximate to the field site.

### Claim 21 (depends on 19)

The method of claim 19 wherein the historical precipitation data source contains precipitation data for more than one previous growing season and averages the multiple previous years precipitation readings for each date within the calendar year.

### Claim 22 (depends on 19)

The method of claim 19 wherein the current precipitation data source comprises precipitation data from at least one precipitation sensor proximate to the field site.

### Claim 23 (depends on 19)

The method of claim 19 wherein the computer further comprises a connection to the historical precipitation data source.

### Claim 24 (depends on 19)

The method of claim 19 wherein the computer further comprises a connection to the current precipitation data source.

### Claim 25 (depends on 19)

The method of claim 19 wherein the forecast precipitation (PF) is calculated from the corresponding calendar date range from the calculation date to the completion date in the historical precipitation data source.

### Claim 26 (depends on 19)

The method of claim 19 wherein the forecast precipitation (PF) is identified from future precipitation forecasts.

### Claim 27 (depends on 19)

The method of claim 19 wherein the yield potential (YP) is calculated using the modified formula:
YP=MTotal*FUE*FAg
wherein FAg is a subjective agronomic factor, having a default value of 1, adjusted for any additional agronomic variables which would alter crop water usage in the current growing season; and
wherein the data capture step further comprises capturing the subjective agronomic factor (FAg) or the additional agronomic variables from which the subjective agronomic factor (FAg) can be determined for use in the remainder of the method.

### Claim 28 (depends on 27)

The method of claim 27 wherein the additional agronomic variables used to establish the subjective agronomic factor (FAg) are selected from the group of:
a. field stresses for the field site;
b. soil test values for the field site;
c. planned fertilizer application rates for the field site;
d. the planned timing for fertilizer application within the current growing season;
e. details of planned chemical applications at the field site; and
f. specific growing characteristics of the selected crop.

### Claim 29

A method of estimating yield potential (YP) for at least one selected crop growing at a field site for a current growing season having a planting date and a completion date, said method using a computer comprising:
a. a connection to a historical precipitation data source containing daily average precipitation amounts for the field site for each calendar day of at least one previous calendar year;
b. a connection to a current precipitation data source containing daily actual precipitation amounts for the field site for each calendar day of the current growing season;
c. a crop database comprising at least one crop record storing at least the following with respect to a selected crop planted at a field site:
i. the planting date and the completion date of the current growing season;
ii. any additional agronomic variables which would alter crop water usage; and
iii. a crop water use efficiency factor (FUE) for the selected crop at the field site calculated using the formula:
F
UE
=
Y
Hist
P
Hist
-
MF
where:
YHist is a historical yield for the selected crop;
PHist is the historical seasonal precipitation, being the total of daily average precipitation amounts for a calendar date range defined by the planting date to the completion date of the current growing season, based on data stored within a historical precipitation data source containing daily average precipitation amounts for the field site for each calendar day of at least one previous growing season; and
MF is an initial moisture factor for the selected crop, being the required amount of available water for the selected crop to establish initial crop growth;
iv. the raw soil water value (WRaw) within a rooting depth of the field site at the planting date based on at least one moisture reading captured in relation to a sample depth within the rooting depth; and
v. a permanent wilting point (WP) of the rooting depth, being the inferior limit of crop available water in the soil of the field site;
d. a yield potential database comprising at least one yield potential record corresponding to a calculation executed in accordance with the method, each yield potential record containing at least:
i. a link to a related crop record;
ii. a calculation date; and
iii. the yield potential (YP) of the selected crop in the current growing season as of the calculation date; and
e. a forecasting software component capable of facilitating the necessary data transactions of the method;
the method comprising using the forecasting software component to execute a yield potential calculation by:
a. in a trigger step, upon the detection of a trigger condition in respect of a crop record:
i. capturing a calculation date;
ii. determining the precipitation received (PR) at the field site from the planting date to the calculation date, based on data stored within a current precipitation data source containing daily actual precipitation amounts for the field site for each calendar day of the current growing season;
iii. determining the forecast precipitation (PF) at the field site from the calculation date to the completion date;
iv. calculating the total available moisture (MTotal) using the formula:
MTotal=((WRaw−WP)+PR+PF)−MF
v. calculating the yield potential (YP) using the formula:
YP=MTotal*FUE
vi. creating a related yield potential record in the yield potential database, linked to the related crop record and storing the yield potential (YP) along with the other record contents.

### Claim 30 (depends on 29)

The method of claim 29 wherein the trigger condition is a manual trigger initiated by a user of the computer.

### Claim 31 (depends on 29)

The method of claim 29 wherein the trigger condition is the arrival of a predetermined periodic frequency at which a forecasting calculation is set to be triggered in respect of a crop record.

### Claim 32 (depends on 29)

The method of claim 29 wherein the forecast precipitation (PF) is calculated from the corresponding calendar date range from the calculation date to the completion date in the historical precipitation data source.

### Claim 33 (depends on 29)

The method of claim 29 wherein forecast precipitation (PF) is identified from future precipitation forecasts.

### Claim 34 (depends on 29)

The method of claim 29 wherein the yield potential (YP) is calculated using the modified formula:
YP=MTotal*FUE*Ag
and further comprising, at the initiation of the trigger step, determining a subjective agronomic factor (FAg), having a default value of 1 and adjusted for any additional agronomic variables stored in the related crop record.

### Claim 35 (depends on 34)

The method of claim 34 wherein the additional agronomic variables are selected from the group of:
a. field stresses for the field site;
b. soil test values for the field site;
c. planned fertilizer application rates for the field site;
d. the planned timing for fertilizer application within the current growing season;
e. details of planned chemical applications at the field site; and
f. specific growing characteristics of the selected crop.

### Claim 36 (depends on 34)

The method of claim 34 wherein a user can modify the subjective agronomic factor (FAg) in respect of a crop record to revise the forecasting scenario executed.

### Claim 37 (depends on 29)

The method of claim 29 further comprising establishing the crop water use efficiency factor for a crop record at the time of creation of the crop record, by:
a. using the computer to calculate or a user interface to capture:
i. the historical seasonal precipitation (PHist) from a planting date to a completion date of the current growing season, based on data stored within the historical precipitation data source;
ii. an initial moisture factor (MF) for the selected crop, being the required amount of available water for the selected crop to establish initial crop growth;
iii. a historical yield (YHist) for the selected crop;
b. determining the crop water use efficiency factor (FUE) using the formula:
F
UE
=
Y
Hist
P
Hist
-
MF
c. storing the crop water use efficiency factor (FUE) to the crop record for use in subsequent calculations.

### Claim 38 (depends on 29)

The method of claim 29 wherein the moisture reading for a sample depth is determined using moisture measurement of a manually extracted soil sample.

### Claim 39 (depends on 29)

The method of claim 29 wherein the moisture reading for a sample depth is captured using at least one in-ground moisture sensor.

### Claim 40 (depends on 39)

The method of claim 39 wherein the inground moisture sensor is any third-party sensor capable of providing a moisture reading from at least one sample depth within the rooting depth of the field site and which provides a data stream readable by the computer via a network interface.

### Claim 41 (depends on 29)

The method of claim 29 wherein the current precipitation data source comprises precipitation data from at least one precipitation sensor proximate to the field site.

### Claim 42 (depends on 29)

The method of claim 29 further comprising a display step wherein the yield potential (YP) stored in at least one yield potential record is displayed via a user interface to a user.

### Claim 43 (depends on 42)

The method of claim 42 wherein the user interface operatively connected to the computer includes a graphical interface allowing for the graphical display of the contents of multiple yield potential records pertaining to a particular selected crop in a field site within a growing season to a user, and a graph of the yield potential (YP) values from multiple yield potential records is displayed to a user.

### Claim 44

A non-transitory computer-readable storage medium storing for use in a method of estimating yield potential (YP) within a current growing season for a selected crop planted at a field site, the computer-readable storage medium including instructions comprising a forecasting software component that when executed by a computer cause the computer to:
a. using a user interface or data stored in the memory of the computer, determine at least the following method parameters:
i. a planting date and a completion date defining the current growing season, and a calculation date being the effective date of the estimate calculation;
ii. the historical seasonal precipitation (PHist), being the total of daily average precipitation amounts for a calendar date range defined by the planting date to the completion date of the current growing season, based on data stored within a historical precipitation data source containing daily average precipitation amounts for the field site for each calendar day of at least one previous growing season;
iii. an initial moisture factor (MF) for the selected crop, being the required amount of available water for the selected crop to establish initial crop growth;
iv. a historical yield (YHist) for the selected crop;
v. a permanent wilting point (WP) of the field site, being the inferior limit of crop available water in the soil of the field site; and
b. for the current growing season:
i. determining the raw soil water value (WRaw) within a rooting depth of the field site at the planting date based on at least one moisture reading captured in relation to a sample depth within the rooting depth;
ii. determining the precipitation received (PR) at the field site from the planting date to the calculation date, based on data stored within a current precipitation data source containing daily actual precipitation amounts for the field site for each calendar day of the current growing season;
iii. determining the forecast precipitation (PF) at the field site from the calculation date to the completion date;
c. calculating a crop water use efficiency factor (FUE) using the formula:
F
UE
=
Y
Hist
P
Hist
-
MF
d. calculating the total available moisture (MTotal) using the formula:
MTotal=((WRaw−WP)+PR+PF)−MF
e. calculating the yield potential (YP) using the formula:
YP=MTotal*FUE
f. storing the calculated yield potential (YP) in the memory of the computer.

### Claim 45 (depends on 44)

The non-transitory computer-readable storage medium of claim 44 wherein:
a. the method parameters further include a subjective agronomic factor (FAg), having a default value of 1, adjusted for any additional agronomic variables which would alter crop water usage in the current growing season; and
b. the yield potential (YP) is calculated using the modified formula:
YP=MTotal*FUE*FAg

### Claim 46 (depends on 44)

The non-transitory computer-readable storage medium of claim 44 wherein the computer will also be caused to display the yield potential (YP) to a user of the computer.

### Claim 47 (depends on 44)

The non-transitory computer-readable storage medium of claim 44 wherein the computer will also store the yield potential (YP) and other parameters and calculations related thereto to a yield potential record in a yield potential database accessible to the computer in respect of the selected crop, the field site and the calculation date.