Modeling sequential actions

Abstract

A bidding system determines values for impression opportunities on an online system. Values are determined by a set of models. Each model of the set of models is associated with a user response and predicts the likelihood that the associated user response will occur following an impression. The models are ordered based on a predicted chronological ordering of user actions that lead towards a conversion. Each model is weighted based on its relevance to conversion and the accuracy of the model relative to the other models in the set of models. Predictions of the probability of user action generated by each model, as well as the model weights, are used to determine a value for impression opportunities. Data from impression opportunities are then used to further train the models and update the weights assigned to each model for use in determining values for subsequent impression opportunities.

Dependencies are inferred from the claim text.