Non-volatile storage with failure prediction

A method, comprising:

• collecting failure bit counts (FBCs) for data read from a set of non-volatile memory cells;
• obtaining one or more metrics of a distribution of the FBCs;
• calculating an indicator from the one or more metrics of the distribution of the FBCs and a target FBC;
• obtaining a probability for the target FBC from the indicator;
• and
• performing at least one of:
• garbage collection, wear leveling, and read threshold voltage adjustment, of the set of non-volatile memory cells according to the probability for the target FBC.

A system comprising:

• a set of non-volatile memory cells;
• means for collecting failure bit counts (FBCs) for data read from the set of non-volatile memory cells;
• means for obtaining a mean and standard deviation of a cumulative distribution of the FBCs;
• means for calculating an indicator from the mean and standard deviation of the cumulative distribution of the FBCs and a target FBC;
• means for obtaining a probability for the target FBC from the indicator;
• and
• means for operating the set of non-volatile memory cells according to the probability for the target FBC.