Systems and methods of predicting consumption of original media items accesible via an internet-based media system

A method comprising:

• collecting pre-availability data describing user interactions in an Internet-based media system with pre-availability elements associated with and representative of a first media item, the pre-availability data being accessible to a set of users of an Internet-based media system during an intermediate period of time prior to the first media item becoming accessible to the users;
• determining, based the collected pre-availability data, a likelihood that each user of the set of users will consume the first media item after the first media item becomes accessible;
• and
• transmitting a message promoting the first media item to a user device of a first user of the set of users based on the likelihood.

An Internet-based media system for providing media items to user devices of a set of users, the system comprising:

• a data storage system, the data storage system storing user activity data for the set of users of the system, the user activity data describing interactions of the user devices with one or more media items of a set of media items in a media item catalog and with pre-availability elements associated with a first media item having a play count of zero;
• and
• a processing device in communication with the data storage system to access information about the first media item and the user activity data, wherein the processing device performs operations comprising:
• collecting pre-availability data describing user interactions in the Internet-based media system with pre-availability elements associated with and representative of the first media item, the pre-availability data being accessible to a set of users of the system during an intermediate period of time prior to the first media item becoming accessible to the set of users;
• determining, based the collected pre-availability data, a likelihood that each user of the set of users will consume the first media item after the first media item becomes accessible to the set of users;
• and
• transmitting a message promoting the first media item to a first user device of a first user based on the likelihood.