Methods and systems for determining risk of heart failure

A method for determining the risk of developing heart failure within a specific time period in a subject not diagnosed or presenting with heart failure, the method comprising:

• (a) providing a set of factors relating to the subject's health comprising:
• presence or absence of hypertension in the subject, presence or absence of coronary artery disease in the subject, smoking or non-smoking behavior of the subject, serum level of soluble ST2 in the subject, age of the subject, body mass index of the subject, and presence or absence of diabetes in the subject;
• (b) determining a separate point value for each of the provided factors in (a);
• (c) adding the separate point values for each of the provided factors in (b) together to yield a total points value;
• and
• (d) determining the subject's risk of developing heart failure within a specific time period by correlating the total points value in (c) with a value on a predictor scale of risk of developing heart failure within the specific time period based on the set of factors obtained from a population of subjects not diagnosed or presenting with heart failure.

A method for determining the risk of developing heart failure within a specific time period in a subject not diagnosed or presenting with heart failure, the method comprising:

• (a) providing a set of factors relating to the subject's health comprising:
• presence or absence of hypertension in the subject, presence or absence of coronary artery disease in the subject, smoking or non-smoking behavior of the subject, serum level of soluble ST2 in the subject, serum level of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) in the subject, age of the subject, body mass index of the subject, and presence or absence of diabetes in the subject;
• (b) determining a separate point value for each of the provided factors in (a);
• (c) adding the separate point values for each of the provided factors in (b) together to yield a total points value;
• and
• (d) determining the subject's risk of developing heart failure within a specific time period by correlating the total points value in (c) with a value on a predictor scale of risk of developing heart failure within the specific time period based on the set of factors obtained from a population of subjects not diagnosed or presenting with heart failure.

A method for determining the risk of developing heart failure within a specific time period in a subject not diagnosed or presenting with heart failure, the method comprising:

• (a) providing a set of factors relating to the subject's health comprising:
• presence or absence of hypertension in the subject, smoking or non-smoking behavior of the subject, serum level of soluble ST2 in the subject, serum level of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) in the subject, age of the subject, body mass index of the subject, and presence or absence of diabetes in the subject;
• (b) determining a separate point value for each of the provided factors in (a);
• (c) adding the separate point values for each of the provided factors in (b) together to yield a total points value;
• and
• (d) determining the subject's risk of developing heart failure within a specific time period by correlating the total points value in (c) with a value on a predictor scale of risk of developing heart failure within the specific time period based on the set of factors obtained from a population of subjects not diagnosed or presenting with heart failure.

A method for determining the efficacy of a treatment for reducing the risk of developing heart failure in a subject, the method comprising:

• (a) providing a set of factors relating to the subject's health at a first time point comprising:
• presence or absence of hypertension in the subject, smoking or non-smoking behavior of the subject, serum level of soluble ST2 in the subject, age of the subject, body mass index of the subject, and presence or absence of diabetes in the subject;
• (b) determining a separate point value for each of the provided factors in (a);
• (c) adding the separate point values for each of the provided factors in (b) together to yield a total points value;
• (d) determining the subject's risk of developing heart failure within a specific time period at the first time point by correlating the total points value of (c) with a value on a predictor scale of risk of developing heart failure within the specific time period based on the set of factors obtained from a population of subjects not diagnosed or presenting with heart failure;
• (e) providing a set of factors relating to the subject's health at a second time point comprising:
• presence or absence of hypertension in the subject, smoking or non-smoking behavior of the subject, serum level of soluble ST2 in the subject, age of the subject, body mass index of the subject, and presence or absence of diabetes in the subject;
• (f) determining a separate point value for each of the provided factors in (e);
• (g) adding the separate point values for each of the provided factors in (f) together to yield a total points value;
• (h) determining the subject's risk of developing heart failure within the specific time period at the second time point by correlating the total points value of (g) with a value on a predictor scale of risk of developing heart failure within the specific time period based on the set of factors obtained from a population of subjects not diagnosed or presenting with heart failure, wherein the second time point is after the first time point, and the subject has received at least two doses of a treatment after the first time point and before the second time point;
• (i) comparing the subject's risk of developing heart failure within the specific time period determined at the second time point to the subject's risk of developing heart failure within the specific time period determined at the first time point;
• and
• (j) identifying the treatment administered to a subject having a decreased risk of developing heart failure within the specific time period determined at the second time point as compared the subject's risk of developing heart failure within the specific time period determined at the first time point as being effective for reducing the risk of developing heart failure, or
• identifying the treatment administered to a subject having an elevated or about the same risk of developing heart failure within the specific time period determined at the second time point as compared to the subject's risk of developing heart failure within the specific time period determined at the first time point as not being effective for reducing the risk of developing heart failure.

A method for selecting a treatment for a subject not diagnosed or presenting with heart failure, the method comprising:

• (a) providing a set of factors relating to the subject's health at a first time point comprising:
• presence or absence of hypertension in the subject, smoking or non-smoking behavior of the subject, serum level of soluble ST2 in the subject, age of the subject, body mass index of the subject, and presence or absence of diabetes in the subject;
• (b) determining a separate point value for each of the provided factors in (a);
• (c) adding the separate point values for each of the provided factors in (b) together to yield a total points value;
• (d) determining the subject's risk of developing heart failure within a specific time period at the first time point by correlating the total points value of (c) with a value on a predictor scale of risk of developing heart failure within the specific time period based on the set of factors obtained from a population of subjects not diagnosed or presenting with heart failure;
• (e) providing a set of factors relating to the subject's health at a second time point comprising:
• presence or absence of hypertension in the subject, smoking or non-smoking behavior of the subject, serum level of soluble ST2 in the subject, age of the subject, body mass index of the subject, and presence or absence of diabetes in the subject;
• (f) determining a separate point value for each of the provided factors in (e);
• (g) adding the separate point values for each of the provided factors in (f) together to yield a total points value;
• (h) determining the subject's risk of developing heart failure within the specific time period at the second time point by correlating the total points value of (g) with a value on a predictor scale of risk of developing heart failure within the specific time period based on the set of factors obtained from a population of subjects not diagnosed or presenting with heart failure, wherein the second time point is after the first time point, and the subject has received a treatment after the first time point and before the second time point;
• (i) comparing the subject's risk of developing heart failure within the specific time period determined at the second time point to the subject's risk of developing heart failure within the specific time period determined at the first time point;
• and
• (j) identifying a subject having an elevated or about the same risk of developing heart failure within the specific time period determined at the second time point as compared to the subject's risk of developing heart failure within the specific time period determined at the first time point, and selecting an alternate treatment for the subject, or
• identifying a subject having a reduced risk of developing heart failure within the specific time period determined at the second time point as compared to the subject's risk of developing heart failure within the specific time period determined at the first time point, and selecting the same treatment for the subject.

A nomogram for the graphic representation of a quantitative probability that a subject not diagnosed or presenting with heart failure will develop heart failure within a specific time period comprising the following elements (a), (b), and (c) depicted on a two-dimensional support:

• (a) a plurality of scales comprising a presence of hypertension scale, a smoking behavior scale, a serum level of soluble ST2 scale, an age of the subject scale, a body mass index scale, and a presence of diabetes scale;
• (b) a point scale;
• and
• (c) a predictor scale,
• wherein each of the plurality of scales of (a) has values, the plurality of scales of (a) is depicted on the two-dimensional support with respect to the point scale in (b), such that the values on each of the plurality of scales can be correlated with values on the point scale, and the predictor scale contains information correlating a sum of each of correlated values on the point scale to the quantitative probability that a subject not diagnosed or presenting with heart failure will develop heart failure within a specific time period.

A nomogram for the graphic representation of a quantitative probability that a subject not diagnosed or presenting with heart failure will develop heart failure within a specific time period comprising the following elements (a), (b), and (c) depicted on a two-dimensional support:

• (a) a plurality of scales comprising a presence of hypertension scale, a presence of coronary artery disease scale, a smoking behavior scale, a serum level of soluble ST2 scale, an age of the subject scale, a body mass index scale, and a presence of diabetes scale;
• (b) a point scale;
• and
• (c) a predictor scale,
• wherein each of the plurality of scales of (a) has values, the plurality of scales of (a) is depicted on the two-dimensional support with respect to the point scale in (b), such that the values on each of the plurality of scales can be correlated with values on the point scale, and the predictor scale contains information correlating a sum of each of correlated values on the point scale to the quantitative probability that a subject not diagnosed or presenting with heart failure will develop heart failure within a specific time period.

A nomogram for the graphic representation of a quantitative probability that a subject not diagnosed or presenting with heart failure will develop heart failure within a specific time period comprising the following elements (a), (b), and (c) depicted on a two-dimensional support:

• (a) a plurality of scales comprising a presence of hypertension scale, a presence of coronary artery disease scale, a smoking behavior scale, a serum level of soluble ST2 scale, a serum level of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) scale, an age of the subject scale, a body mass index scale, and a presence of diabetes scale;
• (b) a point scale;
• and
• (c) a predictor scale,
• wherein each of the plurality of scales of (a) has values, the plurality of scales of (a) is depicted on the two-dimensional support with respect to the point scale in (b), such that the values on each of the plurality of scales can be correlated with values on the point scale, and the risk scale contains information correlating a sum of each of correlated values on the point scale to the quantitative probability that a subject not diagnosed or presenting with heart failure will develop heart failure within a specific time period.

A nomogram for the graphic representation of a quantitative probability that a subject not diagnosed or presenting with heart failure will develop heart failure within a specific time period comprising the following elements depicted on a two-dimensional support:

• (a) a plurality of scales comprising a presence of hypertension scale, a presence of smoking behavior scale, a serum level of soluble ST2 scale, a serum level of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) scale, an age of the subject scale, a body mass index scale, and a presence of diabetes scale;
• (b) a point scale;
• and
• (c) a predictor scale,
• wherein each of the plurality of scales of (a) has values, the plurality of scales of (a) is depicted on the two-dimensional support with respect to the point scale in (b), such that the values on each of the plurality of scales can be correlated with values on the point scale, and the risk scale contains information correlating a sum of each of correlated values on the point scale to the quantitative probability that a subject not diagnosed or presenting with heart failure will develop heart failure within a specific time period.

A computer-implemented method comprising:

• accessing a set of factors relating to a subject's health, the set of factors representing one or more of:
• presence or absence of hypertension in the subject, smoking or non-smoking behavior of the subject, presence or absence of coronary artery disease in the subject, serum level of soluble ST2 in the subject, serum level of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) in the subject, age of the subject, body mass index of the subject, and presence or absence of diabetes in the subject;
• determining, using a processor, a separate point value for each factor in the set of factors;
• determining a total points value as a function of the separate point values;
• and
• determining the subject's risk of the subject developing heart failure within a specific time period by correlating the total points value with a value on a predictor scale of risk of developing heart failure within the specific time period, respectively, wherein the predictor scale is based on a set of factors obtained from a population of subjects not diagnosed or presenting with heart failure.