Forecasting lightning activity

A method comprising:

• obtaining radar reflectivity data from a radar detection device for a plurality of altitudes over an environmental region for a past period of time;
• dividing the reflectivity data into a plurality of sub-regions within the region;
• obtaining lightning discharge data for the environmental region from a lightning discharge detecting device for a past period of time;
• establishing a customizable mathematical operator based on the radar reflectivity data and the lightning discharge data;
• receiving forecast radar data for at least one of the sub-region for a future time period;
• and
• forecasting a probability of lightning strikes in at least one of the sub-regions based on applying the customizable mathematical operator to the forecast radar data.

A non-transitory computer-readable medium containing instructions that, when executed by one or more processors, are configured to perform one or more operations, the operations comprising:

• obtaining radar reflectivity data from a radar detection device for a plurality of altitudes over an environmental region for a past period of time;
• dividing the reflectivity data into a plurality of sub-regions within the region;
• obtaining lightning discharge data for the environmental region from a lightning discharge detecting device for a past period of time;
• establishing a relational operator based on the radar reflectivity data and the lightning discharge data;
• receiving forecast radar data for at least one of the sub-region for a future time period;
• and
• forecasting a probability of lightning strikes in at least one of the sub-regions based on applying the relational operator to the forecast radar data.