Forecasting net load in a distributed utility grid

A net load forecasting system for generating a net load forecast for a utility grid, the utility grid including one or more intermittent distributed energy resources and one or more loads, the net load forecasting system comprising:

• a processor coupled to memory and a display;
• and,
• at least one of hardware and software modules within the memory and controlled or executed by the processor, the modules including:
• a module for defining two or more load forecast zones, each load forecast zone being associated with a load profile type and a climate zone type;
• a module for assigning each of the one or more loads to one of the two or more load forecast zones based on the load profile type and the climate zone type associated with the load;
• a module for assigning each of the one or more intermittent distributed energy resources to at least one of the two or more load forecast zones based on the climate zone type associated with the intermittent distributed energy resource;
• a module for, for each load forecast zone, generating an electrical energy consumption forecast for loads assigned thereto, an electric power generation forecast for intermittent distributed energy resources assigned thereto, and a net load forecast from the electrical energy consumption forecast and the electric power generation forecast;
• a module for combining the net load forecast for each load forecast zone to generate the net load forecast for the utility grid;
• and,
• a module for presenting the net load forecast for the utility grid on a display.

A method for virtually monitoring power output from non-metered distributed energy resources (“DERs”), the non-metered DERs being DERs at premises supplied by a feeder that do not have individual meters or for which access to metered data at a required temporal resolution is not available, the method comprising:

• using a processor, determining power output of the DERs based on one or more of:
• nominal capacity of the DERs, historical generation profiles, analytical models of individual DERs, and at least one of measured data and modeled data for available solar and wind resources;
• generating historical and real-time assessments of the power output of the DERs at one or more of a feeder level, a load zone level, and a premises level;
• if data for one or more DERs, including nominal capacities, historical generation profiles, and relevant data for analytical models of individual DERs, is available at the premises level, assessing power output from the one or more DERs at the premises level and then aggregating the assessed power output from the one or more DERs at the premises level to the feeder level or the load zone level;
• and,
• if data for one or more DERs is available only at the feeder level or load zone level, assessing power output from the one or more DERs at the feeder level or load zone level and then assigning the assessed power output from the one or more DERs at the feeder level or load zone level to the premises level.

A method for forecasting load at premises in distribution grids having limited availability of or access to metering infrastructure and where load measurements and distributed energy resource (“DER”) output measurements at the premises are not available, the method comprising:

• using a processor, receiving historical records of net load measurements at a feeder level, a group of feeders level, or a substation level from available substation automation devices;
• assessing DER power output at the feeder level or at a load zone level for a load zone using virtual monitoring data;
• calculating load at the load zone level as a difference between a measured net load and the assessed DER power output for the load zone;
• developing a statistical, analytical or combined model for load forecasting at the load zone level using the calculated load;
• generating a load forecast at the load zone level;
• and,
• assigning resulting load forecast values to individual premises loads.

A method for forecasting load at premises in distribution grids having limited availability of or access to metering infrastructure and where only selected load measurements and distributed energy resource (“DER”) output measurements at the premises are available, the method comprising:

• using a processor, receiving historical records of net load measurements at a feeder level, a group of feeders level, or a substation level from available substation automation devices;
• assessing DER power output at the feeder level or at a load zone level for a load zone using virtual monitoring data and available measurements from individual DERs at a premises level;
• calculating load at the load zone level as a difference between a measured net load and the assessed DER power output for the load zone;
• calculating an aggregated value of non-metered loads in the load zone as a difference between the calculated load at the load zone level and an aggregated value of all metered loads, wherein the non-metered loads are loads at the premises that do not have individual meters or for which access to metered data at a required temporal resolution is not available;
• developing a statistical, analytical or combined model for load forecasting at the load zone level using the calculated aggregated value of non-metered loads;
• generating a load forecast for aggregated non-metered loads at the load zone level;
• and,
• assigning resulting load forecast values to individual non-metered premises loads.