Displaying estimation of content viewership

One or more non-transitory machine-readable storage devices storing instructions that are executable by one or more processing devices to perform operations comprising:

• obtaining attributes of a first item of content for distribution via a network to a first plurality of client devices;
• identifying a second item of content having attributes in common with the first item of content, the second item of content having been previously distributed via the network to a second plurality of user devices;
• estimating total viewership of the first item of content based on distribution of the second item of content, comprising viewership attributable to distribution, viewership attributable to social views, and viewership attributable to organic views;
• estimating, using the one or more processing devices and based on distribution of the second content, an effect of the distribution of the first item of content on viewership of the first item of content attributable to social views and organic views by:
• identifying a growth in a rate of social views or organic views of the second item of content after distribution of the second item of content compared to before distribution of the second item of content, and
• applying the growth to a rate of social views or organic views of the first item of content before distribution of the first item of content;
• generating data to display the effect of the distribution of the first item of content on viewership of the first item of content attributable to social views and organic views;
• and
• outputting the data along a path to a computing device.

A system comprising:

• a processor executing a prediction engine, the prediction engine configured for:
• estimating viewership of a first item of content directly attributable to distribution of the first item of content based on viewership of a previous distribution of a second item of content directly attributable to the previous distribution of the second item of content by retrieving, by a prediction engine from viewership statistics in a database, an identification of a subset of views of the second item of content corresponding to direct distribution of the second item of content, the second item of content having attributes in common with the first item of content;
• estimating, based on viewership of the distribution of the second item of content beginning at a first time period, an effect of the distribution of the first item of content on viewership of the first item of content attributable to social views and organic views and not directly attributable to the distribution by:
• determining a first difference between a rate of social views of the second item of content before the first time period and a rate of social views of the second item of content during the first time period,
• calculating an estimated rate of social distribution of the first item of content after direct distribution of the first item of content based on a first rate of viewership of the first item of content distributed via social distribution, modified by the first difference,
• determining a second difference between a rate of organic views of the second item of content before the second time period and a rate of organic views of the second item of content during the second time period, and
• calculating an estimated rate of organic distribution of the first item of content after direct distribution of the first item of content based on a second rate of viewership of the first item of content distributed via organic distribution, modified by the second difference;
• generating data to display the effect of the distribution of the first item of content on viewership of the first item of content attributable to social views and organic views;
• and
• outputting the data along a path to a computing device.