Methods for statistical prediction of well production and reserves

A method for optimizing a well production forecast, comprising:

• a) inputting fluid production rate measurements made at selected times into a computer;
• b) inputting probability distributions related to a likelihood of a plurality of fluid production rate forecast model parameters into the computer;
• c) in the computer generating an initial forecast of fluid production rates and total produced fluid volumes using a selected fluid production forecast model;
• d) at a time after a last one of the selected times, in the computer comparing the initial forecast with the fluid production rate measurements and total produced fluid volume measurements to generate an error measurement;
• e) in the computer accepting or rejecting the selected production forecast model based upon a likelihood of the error measurement relative to a prior forecast model and a likelihood of fluid production rate forecast model parameters;
• f) in the computer, randomly adjusting parameters of the selected fluid production rate forecast model to minimize the error measurement, thereby generating an adjusted fluid production rate forecast model;
• g) in the computer, repeating (d), (e), and (f) for a plurality of iterations to generate a plurality of fluid production rate forecast models each having a determined likelihood of error;
• and
• h) displaying the plurality of fluid production rate forecast models with respect to the likelihood of error.