Systems and methods for determining an appropriate model parameter order

A building analysis system comprising:

• a communications interface configured to receive energy consumption data for a building site having energy-consuming building equipment;
• and
• a processing circuit comprising a processor and memory, wherein the processing circuit is configured to:
• calculate a first regression statistic indicating a fit of an energy use model to the energy consumption data under a null hypothesis that the energy use model has a first parameter order;
• calculate a second regression statistic indicating a fit of the energy use model to the energy consumption data under an alternative hypothesis that the energy use model has a second parameter order different from the first parameter order;
• generate a test statistic indicating an improvement between the first regression statistic and the second regression statistic;
• compare the test statistic to a threshold value to determine whether the improvement warrants rejecting the null hypothesis;
• and
• determine an appropriate parameter order for the energy use model based on a result of the comparison.

A method for determining an appropriate parameter order for an energy use model for a building site, the method comprising:

• operating building equipment that affect an energy consumption of the building site;
• receiving, at a building analysis system, energy consumption data for the building site indicative of an energy consumption that results from operating the building equipment;
• calculating, by a processing circuit of the building analysis system, a first regression statistic indicating a fit of the energy use model to the energy consumption data under a null hypothesis that the energy use model has a first parameter order;
• calculating, by the processing circuit, a second regression statistic indicating a fit of the energy use model to the energy consumption data under an alternative hypothesis that the energy use model has a second parameter order different from the first parameter order;
• generating, by the processing circuit, a test statistic indicating an improvement between the first regression statistic and the second regression statistic;
• comparing, by the processing circuit, the test statistic to a threshold value to determine whether the improvement warrants rejecting the null hypothesis;
• and
• determining, by the processing circuit, an appropriate parameter order for the energy use model based on a result of the comparison.