Demand adjustment plan generation apparatus, method, and recording medium

A method for generating a demand adjustment plan for a plurality of apparatuses to which power is supplied from a photovoltaic power generator and a rechargeable battery serving as power supply sources of the apparatuses, the rechargeable battery being configured to discharge power in a manner such that a deficiency of power, which is generated by the photovoltaic power generator, relative to a power demand of the apparatuses is maintained to be less than or equal to a previously set target value, the method causing a computer to execute a process for:

• referring to first memory device and second memory device, the first memory device being configured to, when a power demand adjustment is performed on apparatus groups, each of the apparatus groups including at least one apparatus of the plurality of apparatuses, store expected success probabilities of the power demand adjustment for the apparatus groups, and the second memory device being configured to store a plurality of combinations of time-series power generation amounts generated by the photovoltaic power generator for a predetermined time span and time-series power demand amounts consumed by the plurality of apparatuses for the predetermined time span;
• forming a distribution of discharge amounts of power, which is supplied from the rechargeable battery, calculated for each of the combinations, based on the time-series power generation amounts and the time-series power demand amounts included in the combinations and the target value, the distribution being formed for each of time periods generated by dividing the time span, each of the discharge amounts having a ratio in the distribution,
• selecting, for each of the success probabilities and for each of the time periods, a maximum discharge amount from among a plurality of discharge amounts in the distribution in each of the time periods, each of the plurality of discharge amounts having a value, which is calculated by accumulating the ratios of the discharge amounts greater than or equal to each of the discharge amounts, the value being greater than or equal to each of the success probabilities;
• and
• allocating, when a current charge amount of the rechargeable battery is less than a necessary amount in each of the time periods, an insufficient amount of the charge amount relative to the necessary amount to the time periods which are on and after each of the time periods in a manner such that the allocated amount does not exceed the maximum value of each of the time periods calculated for each of the success probabilities, and
• generating the operation plan which includes the insufficient amount allocated to the time periods as adjustment amounts relative to the power demand,
• wherein in the generating, time periods in which the insufficient amount is allocated with respect to a relatively low success probability are allocated earlier than time periods in which the insufficient amount is allocated with respect to a relatively high success probability.

A computer-readable recording medium having stored there in a program for generating a demand adjustment plan for a plurality of apparatuses to which power is supplied from a photovoltaic power generator and a rechargeable battery serving as power supply sources of the apparatuses, the rechargeable battery being configured to discharge power in a manner such that a deficiency of power, which is generated by the photovoltaic power generator, relative to a power demand of the apparatuses is maintained to be less than or equal to a previously set target value, the program causing a computer to execute a process for:

• referring to first memory device and second memory device, the first memory device being configured to, when a power demand adjustment is performed on apparatus groups, each of the apparatus groups including at least one apparatus of the plurality of apparatuses, store expected success probabilities of the power demand adjustment for the apparatus groups, and the second memory device being configured to store a plurality of combinations of time-series power generation amounts generated by the photovoltaic power generator for a predetermined time span and time-series power demand amounts consumed by the plurality of apparatuses for the predetermined time span;
• forming a distribution of discharge amounts of power, which is supplied from the rechargeable battery, calculated for each of the combinations, based on the time-series power generation amounts and the time-series power demand amounts included in the combinations and the target value, the distribution being formed for each of time periods generated by dividing the time span, each of the discharge amounts having a ratio in the distribution,
• selecting, for each of the success probabilities and for each of the time periods, a maximum discharge amount from among a plurality of discharge amounts in the distribution in each of the time periods, each of the plurality of discharge amounts having a value, which is calculated by accumulating the ratios of the discharge amounts greater than or equal to each of the discharge amounts, the value being greater than or equal to each of the success probabilities;
• and
• allocating, when a current charge amount of the rechargeable battery is less than a necessary amount in each of the time periods, an insufficient amount of the charge amount relative to the necessary amount to the time periods which are on and after each of the time periods in a manner such that the allocated amount does not exceed the maximum value of each of the time periods calculated for each of the success probabilities, and
• generating the operation plan which includes the insufficient amount allocated to the time periods as adjustment amounts relative to the power demand,
• wherein in the generating, time periods in which the insufficient amount is allocated with respect to a relatively low success probability are allocated earlier than time periods in which the insufficient amount is allocated with respect to a relatively high success probability.