Minimizing Uncertainty Envelopes in Trajectories of Evolving Ensemble Members

A computer program product comprising a computer readable storage medium having a computer readable program stored therein, wherein the computer readable program, when executed on a computing device, causes the computing device to:

• generate a trajectory forecast of each member object of an ensemble based on an initial state-space and a model for predicting trajectories of the member objects to generate a plurality of trajectory forecasts, wherein each of the plurality of trajectory forecasts has an individual uncertainty envelope and wherein the ensemble has an ensemble uncertainty envelope;
• apply a classification algorithm on the plurality of trajectory forecasts to identify at least one group of member objects having similar trajectory forecasts;
• generate a reduced ensemble of member objects including the identified group of member objects;
• reconfigure the state-space and the model for predicting trajectories;
• and
• generate an updated trajectory forecast of each member object of the reduced ensemble based on the reconfigured state-space and the reconfigured model for predicting trajectories of the member objects.

An apparatus comprising:

• a processor;
• and
• a memory coupled to the processor, wherein the memory comprises instructions which, when executed by the processor, cause the processor to:
• generate a trajectory forecast of each member object of an ensemble based on an initial state-space and a model for predicting trajectories of the member objects to generate a plurality of trajectory forecasts, wherein each of the plurality of trajectory forecasts has an individual uncertainty envelope and wherein the ensemble has an ensemble uncertainty envelope;
• apply a classification algorithm on the plurality of trajectory forecasts to identify at least one group of member objects having similar trajectory forecasts;
• generate a reduced ensemble of member objects including the identified group of member objects;
• reconfigure the state-space and the model for predicting trajectories;
• and
• generate an updated trajectory forecast of each member object of the reduced ensemble based on the reconfigured state-space and the reconfigured model for predicting trajectories of the member objects.