Methods and Systems for Optical Flow Modeling Applications for Wind and Solar Irradiance Forecasting

A computer implemented method of forecasting cloud motion, said method comprising the steps of:

• gathering a time-series of satellite imagery including at least one of a time-series of visible satellite imagery and a time-series of infrared satellite imagery;
• transforming the time-series of satellite imagery, by a computing device, including at least one of a time-series of visible satellite imagery and a time-series of infrared satellite imagery into a cloudiness index image by establishing a lower limit of visible pixel values for time t;
• establishing an upper limit of visible pixel values for time t;
• and calculating the cloudiness index at each pixel location for time t to provide a cloudiness index image;
• applying optical flow modeling, by a computing device, to the cloudiness index image by assuming pixel value constancy across time;
• assuming motion to be small and approximating the motion with a Taylor series;
• assuming vector field is smooth locally;
• selecting all pixels within d distance of location n with the same prior vector field (m*m pixels);
• solving system of m*m equations in the least square sense;
• repeat at multiple resolutions the step of solving system of m*m equations in least square sense;
• and calculating cloud motion vectors from multiple resolution vector fields;
• applying the cloud motion vectors, by a computing device, to the cloudiness index image to predict future cloud position and intensity.