Identifying, Assessing, And Tracking Black Swan Risks For An Engineering And Construction Program
AssigneeFluor Technologies Corporation
InventorRobert Prieto
Life of this patent
Estimating the term…
Abstract
A risk analysis system having a risk analysis engine that can identify a set of risks for a program based on a constructed program model. The program model can be based on known, historical programs using current program attribute information. The risks can be identified by executing one or more simulations using the program model. The outcome of the simulation can be used to identify individual drivers of risk, which can in turn be used to identify one or more previously undetected and unanticipated black swan-level risks facing the program.
Claims24
A risk analysis system, comprising:
- a program database storing historical program objects representing historical programs, each historical program object comprising program event features;
- a risk database storing risk objects having risk drivers;
- a risk analysis engine communicatively coupled to the program database and the risk database, the risk analysis engine configured to:
- identify a reference program object selected from the historical program object in the program database as a template;
- generate a program model by populating program event features of the template according to a current program's attributes;
- generate a program outcome object representative of a program outcome by running at least one simulation of the program model, the program outcome object comprising outcome factors;
- identify program risk factors from the outcome factors of the simulation;
- derive a set of risks from the program risk drivers as a function of risk objects having risk drivers satisfying criteria depending on the program risk factors;
- and
- configure an output device to present the set of risks to a user.
The risk analysis system further comprises a recommendation module configured to generate a financial instrument as mitigation against the identified set of risks.
Dependencies are inferred from the claim text.