US 2014/0180753 A1 · EVALUATING THE RELIABILITY OF ACTIVITY FORECASTS

Abstract

Embodiments of the present invention disclose a method, computer program product, and system for evaluating the reliability of an activity forecast. A computer identifies forecast information for an activity, where the forecast information can include at least one forecasted time duration to finish the activity, an actual time duration of the activity, a highest forecasted time duration of the activity, and an individual that provided the identified forecast information. The computer utilizes the forecast information to generate a normalized Cartesian plot of the identified forecast information. The computer determines a best-fit line for the normalized Cartesian plot. The computer determines a variance between the best-fit line for the normalized Cartesian plot and the actual time duration of the activity. The computer determines an accuracy rating corresponding to the variance of the forecast information.

Claims24

Dependent claims

A method for evaluating the reliability of an activity forecast, the method comprising the steps of:

a computer identifying forecast information for an activity, the identified forecast information comprising, at least one forecasted time duration to finish the activity, an actual time duration of the activity, a highest forecasted time duration of the activity and an individual that provided the identified forecast information;
the computer generating a normalized Cartesian plot utilizing the identified forecast information;
the computer determining a best-fit line for the normalized Cartesian plot;
the computer identifying an allowance percentage for the forecast information, wherein the allowance percentage is assigned to the activity, and defines a value above and below the actual time duration of the activity;
the computer determining a point at which the best-fit line for the normalized Cartesian plot remains within the identified allowance percentage from the determined point through the remaining time duration of the activity;
and
the computer determining a speed rating corresponding to the identified forecast information, wherein the speed rating is based on the determined point at which the best-fit line for the normalized Cartesian plot remains within the identified allowance percentage from the determined point through the remaining time duration of the activity.

4 more elements

A computer program product for evaluating the reliability of an activity forecast, the computer program product comprising:

one or more computer-readable storage devices and program instructions stored on the one or more computer-readable storage devices, the program instructions comprising:
program instructions to identify forecast information for an activity, the identified forecast information comprising, at least one forecasted time duration to finish the activity, an actual time duration of the activity, a highest forecasted time duration of the activity and an individual that provided the identified forecast information;
program instructions to generate a normalized Cartesian plot utilizing the identified forecast information;
program instructions to determine a best-fit line for the normalized Cartesian plot;
program instructions to identify an allowance percentage for the forecast information, wherein the allowance percentage is assigned to the activity, and defines a value above and below the actual time duration of the activity;
program instructions to determine a point at which the best-fit line for the normalized Cartesian plot remains within the identified allowance percentage from the determined point through the remaining time duration of the activity;
and
program instructions to determine a speed rating corresponding to the identified forecast information, wherein the speed rating is based on the determined point at which the best-fit line for the normalized Cartesian plot remains within the identified allowance percentage from the determined point through the remaining time duration of the activity.

5 more elements

A computer system for evaluating the reliability of an activity forecast, the computer system comprising:

one or more computer processors;
one or more computer-readable storage media;
program instructions stored on the one or more computer-readable storage media for execution by at least one of the one or more processors, the program instructions comprising:
program instructions to identify forecast information for an activity, the identified forecast information comprising, at least one forecasted time duration to finish the activity, an actual time duration of the activity, a highest forecasted time duration of the activity and an individual that provided the identified forecast information;
program instructions to generate a normalized Cartesian plot utilizing the identified forecast information;
program instructions to determine a best-fit line for the normalized Cartesian plot;
program instructions to identify an allowance percentage for the forecast information, wherein the allowance percentage is to the activity, and defines a value above and below the actual time duration of the activity;
program instructions to determine a point at which the best-fit line for the normalized Cartesian plot remains within the identified allowance percentage from the determined point through the remaining time duration of the activity;
and
program instructions to determine a speed rating corresponding to the identified forecast information, wherein the speed rating is based on the determined point at which the best-fit line for the normalized Cartesian plot remains within the identified allowance percentage from the determined point through the remaining time duration of the activity.

7 more elements

Dependencies are inferred from the claim text.

Evaluating the reliability of activity forecasts

Life of this patent

Evaluating the reliability of activity forecasts

Life of this patent

Abstract

Claims24