# US 2014/0114880 A1 · Computer Implemented Method for Estimating Age-Period-Cohort Models on Account-Level Data > Agents: this data is available as JSON from the patentgrep API and MCP server — see https://patentgrep.com/llms.txt - Number: US 2014/0114880 A1 - Document ID: US20140114880A1 - Status: Published application - Kind: A1 - Application number: 13/998,068 - Filed: 2013-09-27 - Published: 2014-04-24 - Earliest claimed: 2012-09-27 - Assignees: Deep Future Analytics, LLC - Inventors: Joseph L. Breeden - Web page: https://patentgrep.com/patent/US20140114880A1 ## CPC - G06Q 40/06: Asset management; Financial planning or analysis - G06Q 30/0202: Market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities - G06Q: INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR ## Abstract A computer-implemented method and invention for calculating a loan-level model with the age, period, and cohort functions found in the structure of an Age-Period-Cohort models. The invention uses one observation per account per time period, processed with a uniquely structured set of basis functions, so that the model may be estimated with either Generalized Linear Models (GLM) or Generalized Linear Mixed Models (GLMM). The model created by the invention may be used for account-level forecasting or stress testing of the defined performance variable if the historic extrapolation of the period function is detrended, the age and cohort functions are re-estimated appropriately, and a suitable scenario for the future of the period function. Scores may also be created by combining traditional scoring inputs with an account-level offset computed as the sum of the age and period functions at each time point. ## Claims ### Claim 1 A machine for estimating the future behavior of account data comprising: a computer system for receiving account data which includes at least two of the three values of account age, observation period, or origination cohort; and an engine for processing said account data and providing estimates of one or more of three parametric functions of age, period, and cohort; wherein said computer system uses said parametric functions to predict the behavior of said accounts. ### Claim 2 (depends on 1) The machine as recited in claim 1, wherein said engine utilizes orthonormal basis functions for estimating any of said parametric functions, wherein said basis functions include constant and linear terms. ### Claim 3 (depends on 1) The machine as recited in claim 1, wherein said engine utilizes spline basis functions for estimating said parametric functions, wherein said spline functions have a total of one constant term and two linear terms. ### Claim 4 (depends on 1) The machine as recited in claim 1, wherein said engine utilizes non-parametric functions for estimating said functions of age, period and cohort, wherein said non-parametric functions have a total of one constant term and two linear terms. ### Claim 5 (depends on 1) The machine as recited in claim 1, wherein said engine takes into consideration a random effects term on the account number. ### Claim 6 (depends on 2) The machine as recited in claim 2, wherein said engine takes into consideration a random effects term on the account number. ### Claim 7 (depends on 3) The machine as recited in claim 3, wherein said engine takes into consideration a random effects term on the account number. ### Claim 8 (depends on 1) The machine as recited in claim 1, wherein said engine generates scores of account specific behavior. ### Claim 9 (depends on 2) The machine as recited in claim 2, wherein said engine generates scores of account specific behavior. ### Claim 10 (depends on 3) The machine as recited in claim 3, wherein said engine generates scores of account specific behavior. ### Claim 11 (depends on 4) The machine as recited in claim 4, wherein said engine generates scores of account specific behavior. ### Claim 12 (depends on 5) The machine as recited in claim 5, wherein said engine generates scores of account specific behavior. ### Claim 13 (depends on 6) The machine as recited in claim 6, wherein said engine generates scores of account specific behavior. ### Claim 14 (depends on 1) The machine as recited in claim 1, wherein said future behavior includes stress testing. ### Claim 15 (depends on 2) The machine as recited in claim 2, wherein said future behavior includes stress testing. ### Claim 16 (depends on 3) The machine as recited in claim 3, wherein said future behavior includes stress testing. ### Claim 17 (depends on 4) The machine as recited in claim 4, wherein said future behavior includes stress testing. ### Claim 18 (depends on 5) The machine as recited in claim 5, wherein said future behavior includes stress testing. ### Claim 19 (depends on 6) The machine as recited in claim 6, wherein said future behavior includes stress testing. ### Claim 21 The use of the age and period functions to compute an account-level offset for creating scores. ### Claim 22 The use of additional historical macroeconomic data to stabilize the estimation of the period function and adjust the age and cohort functions to compensate. ### Claim 23 (depends on 21) The use of the invention in claim 21 for creating scores of account specific behavior. ### Claim 24 (depends on 1) The machine as recited in claim 1, wherein said engine is programmed to forecast future behavior of said accounts. ### Claim 25 (depends on 2) The machine as recited in claim 2, wherein said engine is programmed to forecast future behavior of said accounts. ### Claim 26 (depends on 3) The machine as recited in claim 3, wherein said engine is programmed to forecast future behavior of said accounts. ### Claim 27 (depends on 4) The machine as recited in claim 4, wherein said engine is programmed to forecast future behavior of said accounts. ### Claim 28 (depends on 5) The machine as recited in claim 5, wherein said engine is programmed to forecast future behavior of said accounts. ### Claim 29 (depends on 6) The machine as recited in claim 6, wherein said engine is programmed to forecast future behavior of said accounts.