Assessing consumer purchase behavior in making a financial contract authorization decision

A method comprising:

• receiving a request for a new service contract corresponding to a prospective purchaser in connection with subsidized equipment, wherein the request for a new service contract comprises purchaser data specific to the prospective purchaser, and new transaction data;
• determining historic data for a plurality of past service contracts based at least in part on the purchaser data, one or more characteristics of the subsidized equipment, and one or more characteristics of the new service contact, wherein each service contract of the plurality of past service contracts comprises respective purchaser data, respective transaction data, and respective outcome data;
• determining, by a processor of a computing device, based at least in part on the respective outcome data, historic profitability data related to the plurality of past service contracts;
• determining, by the processor, a profitability prediction of the request, wherein the profitability prediction is based at least in part upon the historic profitability data;
• determining, by the processor, a profit estimate of the request, wherein the profit estimate is based at least in part upon a cost associated with the subsidization of the subsidized equipment;
• and
• determining, by the processor, an authorization decision based at least in part on the profitability prediction, wherein the authorization decision comprises one of an approval or a denial of the new service contract.