Information Modeling and Projection For Geographic Regions Having Insufficient Sample Size

A system for projecting survey information into a geographic region, the geographic region having a plurality of geographic subregions, the system comprising:

• a memory storing the survey information;
• and
• a processor coupled to the memory, the processor adapted to form a selected geographic subregion profile, for each selected geographic subregion of the plurality of geographic subregions, using a plurality of profiling variables;
• to assign randomly a plurality of survey respondents into each selected geographic subregion to form a modeled population, the random assignment weighted based on a representation probability of each of the corresponding plurality of survey respondents for the selected geographic subregion profile;
• and to project the survey information corresponding to the modeled population into the geographic region.

Software for projecting survey information into a geographic region, the geographic region having a plurality of geographic subregions, the software comprising:

• a first program construct for profiling a selected geographic subregion of the plurality of geographic subregions using a plurality of profiling variables to form a selected geographic subregion profile, for each geographic subregion of the plurality of geographic subregions;
• a second program construct for assigning randomly a plurality of survey respondents into the selected geographic subregion to form a modeled population, the random assignment weighted based on a representation probability of each of the corresponding plurality of survey respondents for the selected geographic subregion profile, for each geographic subregion of the plurality of geographic subregions;
• and
• a third program construct for projecting the survey information into the geographic region, the survey information corresponding to the modeled population.

A method for projecting survey information into a geographic region, the geographic region having a plurality of geographic subregions, the method comprising:

• profiling a selected geographic subregion of the plurality of geographic subregions using a plurality of profiling variables to form a selected geographic subregion profile, the plurality of profiling variables comprising a plurality of demographic variables and a plurality of behavioral variables, the profiling further comprising determining a first portion of the selected geographic subregion profile based upon demographic variables determined for the selected geographic subregion, assigning a first plurality of resident survey respondents to the selected geographic subregion;
• assigning a second plurality of non-resident survey respondents to the selected geographic subregion, the second plurality of non-resident survey respondents resident in a plurality of neighboring geographic subregions;
• and determining a second portion of the selected geographic subregion profile as a weighted average of a corresponding pluralities of profiling variables of the first plurality of resident survey respondents and second plurality of non-resident survey respondents;
• determining a representation probability of each of the corresponding plurality of survey respondents by applying a sample balancing algorithm to corresponding pluralities of profiling variables of all survey respondents in comparison to the selected geographic subregion profile;
• determining a modeled population by assigning deterministically all resident survey respondents to the modeled population of the selected geographic subregion and assigning randomly a plurality of survey respondents into the selected geographic subregion, the random assignment weighted based on the representation probability of each of the corresponding plurality of survey respondents for the selected geographic subregion profile;
• repeating the profiling, representation probability determination and modeled population determination for all geographic subregions of the plurality of geographic subregions;
• and
• projecting the survey information into the geographic region, the survey information corresponding to the modeled population.