System and method for estimating the most probable path of a vehicle travelling on a road

A system for estimating the most probable path followed by a vehicle on a road network, including road sections originating from respective intersection or branching nodes, to which a travel probability is assigned, comprising:

• means for acquiring a data element for locating the vehicle on the road network;
• means for storing a map of the territory through which the road network, passes, comprising data representative of the corresponding designated use of a plurality of areas of territory associated with the sections of the road network;
• and
• processing means arranged to assign an improved travelling probability to a road section originating from a road intersection or branching node, as a function of the designated use of the area of territory associated with said road section,
• in which the processing means are arranged to calculate the most probable path for the vehicle according to the improved probabilities assigned to the road sections, said most probable path comprising a plurality of consecutive road sections originating from the intersection or branching node approached by the vehicle for which the joint travel probability is highest.