ETOPS IFSD Risk Calculator

An extended operations (ETOPS) dual independent engine in-flight shutdown (IFSD) risk analysis system comprising:

• a memory module operable to store a performance data set of a two-engine aircraft/engine combination to obtain flight specific data;
• an input module operable to receive a user input variable array comprising:
• parameters for a specific two-engine aircraft/engine combination for an ETOPS flight;
• and
• average engine in-flight shutdown rates;
• an ETOPS IFSD risk calculator module operable to calculate:
• flight times based on the user input variable array and the flight specific data;
• probability values based on the user input variable array, the flight specific data, and the flight times;
• and
• a risk of dual independent engine shutdown total thrust loss starting at any time during the ETOPS flight based on the probability values;
• and
• a display module operable to display the user input variable array, the probability values, and the risk on a display screen.

A computer readable medium comprising program code for analyzing a risk of extended operations (ETOPS) dual independent engine in-flight shutdown (IFSD) using ETOPS IFSD risk calculation means, the program code for:

• providing a two-engine aircraft/engine combination performance data set to obtain flight specific data;
• providing a user input variable array;
• calculating flight times based on the user input variable array and the flight specific data;
• calculating dual independent engine shutdown total thrust loss probability values for various phases of an ETOPS flight based on the user input variable array, the flight specific data, and the flight times;
• and
• calculating a probability of total thrust loss starting at any time during the ETOPS flight to obtain a calculated risk of the dual independent engine in-flight shutdown on the ETOPS flight based on the dual independent engine shutdown total thrust loss probability values.