# US 2010/0169162 A1 · Methods and apparatus to determine the effects of trade promotions on subsequent sales > Agents: this data is available as JSON from the patentgrep API and MCP server — see https://patentgrep.com/llms.txt - Number: US 2010/0169162 A1 - Document ID: US20100169162A1 - Status: Published application - Kind: A1 - Application number: 12/493,643 - Filed: 2009-06-29 - Published: 2010-07-01 - Earliest claimed: 2008-09-05 - Assignees: The Nielsen Company (US), LLC - Inventors: Gregory D. Anderson; John P. Mansour - Web page: https://patentgrep.com/patent/US20100169162A1 ## CPC - G06Q 30/0246: {Traffic} - G06Q 10/10: Office automation; Time management - G06Q 30/02: Marketing; Price estimation or determination; Fundraising - G06Q 30/0201: Market modelling; Market analysis; Collecting market data - G06Q 30/0202: Market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities - G06Q 30/0211: Determining the effectiveness of discounts or incentives - G06Q: INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR ## Abstract Example methods and apparatus to determine the effects of trade promotions on subsequent sales are disclosed. A disclosed example method includes determining a plurality of decremental effect factors, each corresponding to a respective one of a plurality of weeks, wherein at least some of the decremental effect factors are indicative of a downward trend in sales of a product that was under a promotion condition during a first one of the plurality of weeks. The example method also includes determining a plurality of decremental effect terms, each decremental effect term equal to the product of a corresponding coefficient multiplied by a corresponding one of the decremental effect factors, and determining a pantry loading effect term based on the plurality of decremental effect terms. Further, the example method includes determining a pantry loading incremental sub-volume based on the pantry loading effect term, and generating a report including the pantry loading incremental sub-volume. ## Claims ### Claim 1 A computer implemented method of determining a pantry loading effect on sales of a product, comprising: determining a plurality of decremental effect factors, each corresponding to a respective one of a plurality of weeks, wherein at least some of the decremental effect factors are indicative of a downward trend in sales of a product that was under a promotion condition during a first one of the plurality of weeks; determining a plurality of decremental effect terms, each decremental effect term equal to the product of a corresponding coefficient multiplied by a corresponding one of the decremental effect factors; determining a pantry loading effect term based on the plurality of decremental effect terms; determining a pantry loading incremental sub-volume based on the pantry loading effect term; and generating a report including the pantry loading incremental sub-volume. ### Claim 2 (depends on 1) A method as defined in claim 1, wherein determining the pantry loading effect term comprises summing the plurality of decremental effect terms. ### Claim 3 (depends on 2) A method as defined in claim 2, wherein the plurality of decremental effects terms comprise a lift term indicative of a lag effect during the plurality of weeks. ### Claim 4 (depends on 3) A method as defined in claim 3, wherein the lift term comprises the log of sales of the product during the promotion divided by sales of the product absent the promotion. ### Claim 5 (depends on 1) A method as defined in claim 1, further comprising determining the plurality of decremental effect values when at least one of a temporary price reduction of the product has been detected or a promotion of the product has been detected. ### Claim 6 (depends on 5) A method as defined in claim 5, wherein the temporary price reduction has been detected when the price of the product is below a threshold price. ### Claim 7 (canceled) ### Claim 8 (depends on 1) A method as defined in claim 1, wherein the plurality of decremental effect factors are associated with the sales of the product within a single store. ### Claim 9 (canceled) ### Claim 10 (depends on 1) A method as defined in claim 1, wherein at least one of the plurality of decremental effect factors is equal to zero when an actual sales volume of the product for the week corresponding to the at least one of the plurality of decremental effect factors is greater than zero and the actual sales volume is greater than a base units sales volume. ### Claim 11 (depends on 10) A method as defined in claim 10, wherein the base units sales volume is representative of the sales volume for the product that would have occurred during the week corresponding to the at least one of the plurality of decremental effect factors absent the trade promotion during the first one of the plurality of weeks. ### Claim 12 A computer implemented method to analyze sales effects of a trade promotion, comprising: retrieving product identifiers corresponding to products sold in a retail establishment; calculating a plurality of sales volumes, each corresponding to a respective one of the product identifiers; identifying a plurality of non-promotional prices, each corresponding to a respective one of the product identifiers; calculating weighting factors indicative of effects on performances of the plurality of sales volumes; calculating a plurality of first distribution volumes based on the weighting factors, each first distribution volume corresponding to a respective one of the product identifiers having the non-promotional prices; calculating a plurality of second distribution volumes based on the plurality of first distribution volumes and the trade promotion, each second distribution volume corresponding to a respective one of the product identifiers associated with the trade promotion; and generating a report including the plurality of second distribution volumes. ### Claim 13 (depends on 12) A method as defined in claim 12, wherein the weighting factors are indicative of competitive trade effects. ### Claim 14 (depends on 13) A method as defined in claim 13, further comprising calculating the competitive trade effects as a Jaccard weight. ### Claim 15 (depends on 12) A method as defined in claim 12, wherein the weighting factors are indicative of brand trade cannibalization effects. ### Claim 16 (depends on 12) A method as defined in claim 12, further comprising calculating an incremental distribution volume based on the difference between the plurality of first distribution volumes and the plurality of second distribution volumes. ### Claim 17 (depends on 16) A method as defined in claim 16, wherein the plurality of first distribution volumes is indicative of a baseline product volume. ### Claim 18 (depends on 16) A method as defined in claim 16, wherein the plurality of second distribution volumes is indicative of a pantry-loading volume. ### Claim 19 (depends on 12) A method as defined in claim 12, wherein calculating the plurality of second distribution volumes further comprises calculating cannibalization lift terms for a time period after the trade promotion. ### Claim 20 (depends on 19) A method as defined in claim 19, wherein the cannibalization lift terms comprise the log of the products sold in the retail establishment divided by the plurality of first distribution volumes. ### Claim 21 An apparatus to determine a pantry loading effect, comprising: a base driver data generator to calculate a plurality of decremental effect factors, each factor corresponding to a respective one of a plurality of weeks during a promotion condition; a scoring processor to calculate a plurality of decremental effect terms by multiplying a factor coefficient by a corresponding one of the plurality of decremental effect factors, and to calculate a pantry loading effect term based on the plurality of decremental effect terms; and an incremental driver data generator to calculate a pantry loading incremental sub-volume based on the pantry loading effect term. ### Claim 22 (depends on 21) An apparatus as defined in claim 21, further comprising a pre-model data generator to calculate a lift term indicative of a lag effect during the plurality of weeks. ### Claim 23 (canceled) ### Claim 24 (depends on 21) An apparatus as defined in claim 21, further comprising a baseline volume manager to identify a downward trend in sales of a product based on the plurality of decremental effect factors, the product under the promotion condition during a first one of the plurality of weeks. ### Claim 25 An article of manufacture storing machine accessible instructions that, when executed, cause a machine to: determine a plurality of decremental effect factors, each corresponding to a respective one of a plurality of weeks, wherein at least some of the decremental effect factors are indicative of the plurality of weeks; determine a plurality of decremental effect terms, each decremental effect term equal to the product of a corresponding coefficient multiplied by a corresponding one of the decremental effect factors; determine a pantry loading effect term based on the plurality of decremental effect terms; determine a pantry loading incremental sub-volume based on the pantry loading effect term; and generate a report including the pantry loading incremental sub-volume. ### Claim 26 (canceled) ### Claim 27 (depends on 25) An article of manufacture as defined in claim 25, wherein the machine readable instructions, when executed, cause the machine to determine the plurality of decremental effect values when at least one of a temporary price reduction of the product has been detected or a promotion of the product has been detected. ### Claim 28 (canceled) ### Claim 29 (depends on 25) An article of manufacture as defined in claim 25, wherein the machine readable instructions, when executed, cause the machine to associate the plurality of decremental effect factors with the sales of the product within a single store.