Method and system for automated location dependent probabilistic tropical cyclone forecast

Method for automated location dependent probabilistic tropical cyclone forecast, whereas data records of weather events are generated and location dependent probability values for specific weather conditions associated with the tropical cyclone are determined, characterised,

• in that data records representative of an historical track of a weather event are assigned to a year of occurrence of said weather event and are saved on a memory module of a calculating unit, said data records including a plurality of points representative of geographical positions and/or intensity of the event along the historical track,
• in that a plurality of new data records representative of alternative tracks are generated for each historical track by means of a first MonteCarlo-module, wherein points of said new data records are generated from said points along the historical track by a dependent sampling process,
• in that a grid over a geographical area of interest is established by means of the calculation unit, said area including at least a portion of the plurality of historical tracks, and a intensity climatology for selected cells in the grid is generated, based upon the intensity data associated with at least some of the plurality of points along the historical tracks located within said selected grid cells,
• in that for each of said alternative tracks one or more new intensity data are generated by means of a second MonteCarlo-module, wherein the one or more new intensity data of the new data records of said alternative tracks are generated from the intensity data associated with at least some of the plurality of points along the historical tracks by a MonteCarlo sampling process,
• in that a distribution for a definable time period of the data records of the historical tracks is generates by means of a scaling table classifying the weather events by intensity and/or year of occurrence, and said distribution of said historical tracks are reproduced by a filtering module within the new or accumulated data records according to their assigned year,
• in that a wind field of each data record is generated based on a definable wind field profile, and a probability is assigned by a interpolation-module to each point in said grid, giving the probability of the occurrence of a specific wind strength at a given geographical location and time.