Statistical-deterministic approach to natural disaster prediction

A method of generating a data set corresponding to a probabilistic wind speed distribution within a predetermined radius of a point of interest, the method comprising:

• statistically generating a large plurality of synthetic wind storm tracks that pass within the predetermined radius of the point of interest;
• modeling an intensity of a synthetic wind storm at a plurality of points along each one of the large plurality of synthetic wind storm tracks;
• based on the intensity modeling step, generating, for each one of the large plurality of synthetic wind storm tracks, a probabilistic wind speed distribution at selected points along the synthetic wind storm track;
• producing the data set by combining the wind speed distributions for each of the large plurality of synthetic wind storm tracks within the predetermined radius of the point of interest.

A method of estimating long-term risk associated with wind speed within an area of interest, the method comprising:

• modeling an intensity of a synthetic wind storm at a plurality of points along each one of a large plurality of statistically generated synthetic wind storm tracks, together with a parametric or modeled wind distribution to produce an estimate of wind speed distribution associated with each track;
• generating a probabilistically weighted combination of the estimated wind speed distributions along each track to create a probabilistic wind speed distribution within the area of interest;
• and
• estimating a risk of wind speed within the are of interest exceeding a predetermined threshold value based on the probabilistic wind speed distribution.