Method and system for analyzing the risk of a project

A system for analyzing risk, comprising:

• a database operable to store input comprising a plurality of parameters, the plurality of parameters describing a project associated with a duration and a budget;
• and
• a server system coupled to the database, the server system comprising one or more modules operable to:
• establish a plurality of schedule values for a schedule variable, the schedule variable representing the duration of the project;
• repeat the following for each schedule value of the plurality of schedule values to calculate a plurality of cost-probability relationships, the cost-probability relationship relating a cost value of a cost variable with a probability value of a probability variable, the cost variable representing the budget of the project, the probability variable representing the probability of meeting a given cost value at a given schedule value:
• select a schedule value of the plurality of schedule values;
• and
• calculate a cost-probability relationship at the selected schedule value;
• and
• determine a cost-probability-schedule relationship from the calculated cost-probability relationships, the cost-probability-schedule relationship relating a cost value, a probability value, and a schedule value.

Logic for analyzing risk, the logic embodied in a medium and operable to:

• receive input comprising a plurality of parameters, the plurality of parameters describing a project associated with a duration and a budget;
• establish a plurality of schedule values for a schedule variable, the schedule variable representing the duration of the project;
• repeat the following for each schedule value of the plurality of schedule values to calculate a plurality of cost-probability relationships, the cost-probability relationship relating a cost value of a cost variable with a probability value of a probability variable, the cost variable representing the budget of the project, the probability variable representing the probability of meeting a given cost value at a given schedule value:
• select a schedule value of the plurality of schedule values;
• and
• calculate a cost-probability relationship at the selected schedule value;
• and
• determine a cost-probability-schedule relationship from the calculated cost-probability relationships, the cost-probability-schedule relationship relating a cost value, a probability value, and a schedule value.

A system for analyzing risk, comprising:

• means for receiving input comprising a plurality of parameters, the plurality of parameters describing a project associated with a duration and a budget;
• means for establishing a plurality of schedule values for a schedule variable, the schedule variable representing the duration of the project;
• means for repeating the following for each schedule value of the plurality of schedule values to calculate a plurality of cost-probability relationships, the cost-probability relationship relating a cost value of a cost variable with a probability value of a probability variable, the cost variable representing the budget of the project, the probability variable representing the probability of meeting a given cost value at a given schedule value:
• selecting a schedule value of the plurality of schedule values;
• and
• calculating a cost-probability relationship at the selected schedule value;
• and
• means for determining a cost-probability-schedule relationship from the calculated cost-probability relationships, the cost-probability-schedule relationship relating a cost value, a probability value, and a schedule value.

A method for analyzing risk, comprising:

• receiving input comprising a plurality of parameters, the plurality of parameters describing a project associated with a duration, a budget, and historical data;
• establishing a plurality of schedule values for a schedule variable, the schedule variable representing the duration of the project, the plurality of schedule values established by performing at least one of the following:
• a first procedure comprising:
• receiving a maximum cost value and a minimum cost value;
• estimating a maximum schedule value and a minimum schedule value from the maximum cost value and the minimum cost value;
• segmenting the difference between the maximum schedule value and the minimum schedule value into a plurality of increments;
• and
• establishing the schedule values in accordance with the increments;
• and
• a second procedure comprising:
• receiving a maximum schedule value and a minimum schedule value;
• segmenting the difference between the maximum schedule value and the minimum schedule value into a plurality of increments;
• and
• establishing the schedule values in accordance with the increments;
• repeating the following for each schedule value of the plurality of schedule values to calculate a plurality of cost-probability relationships, the cost-probability relationship relating a cost value of a cost variable with a probability value of a probability variable, the cost variable representing the budget of the project, the probability variable representing the probability of meeting a given cost value at a given schedule value:
• selecting a schedule value of the plurality of schedule values;
• and
• calculating a cost-probability relationship at the selected schedule value by:
• providing information to a cost model operable to estimate a cost value and a probability value at a given schedule value;
• and
• receiving a result comprising the cost-probability relationship at the given schedule value;
• determining a cost-probability-schedule relationship from the calculated cost-probability relationships, the cost-probability-schedule relationship relating a cost value, a probability value, and a schedule value;
• calculating a plurality of graph values representing the cost-probability-schedule relationship;
• generating a graph from the plurality of graph values;
• calculating a probability of overrun from the probability value, the probability of overrun representing the probability that the cost value will be exceeded;
• calculating an amount of overrun from the cost value and a second cost value, the second cost value representing a cost associated with an approximately one hundred percent probability;
• and
• determine a cost risk from the probability of overrun and the amount of overrun.