Advance failure prediction
AssigneeIbex Process Technology, Inc.
InventorsWai T. Chan, Edward A. Reitman, Jill P. Card
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Abstract
Failure prediction for complex processes is performed utilizing one or more nonlinear regression models to relate operational variable values measured at two or more times to predicted process metric values and maintenance variable values.
Claims20
A method of predicting failure in a process having associated metrics and a plurality of operational variables, the method comprising the steps of:
- using non-linear regression to predict values for a first set of operational variables based on two or more prior values thereof;
- using non-linear regression to predict a plurality of process metric values based on the first set of predicted values and prior values of two or more operational variables;
- and
- determining a likelihood of a process failure based on one or more of the predicted process metric values.
A method of predicting failure in a process having a plurality of operational variables associated therewith, the method comprising the steps of:
- using non-linear regression to predict values at a first time for a first set of operational variables based on two or more prior values thereof;
- using non-linear regression to predict values at a second time for a second set of operational variables based on two or more prior values thereof;
- and
- determining a likelihood of a process failure based on one or more of the predicted values for the process operational variables at the first time and the second time.
A method of predicting the need for maintenance activities for a process having a plurality of operational variables associated therewith, the method comprising the steps of:
- using non-linear regression to predict values at a first time for a first set of operational variables based on two or more prior values thereof;
- using non-linear regression to predict values at a second time for a second set of operational variables based on two or more prior values thereof;
- and
- determining the need for a maintenance action based at least in part on a comparison of the first set of predicted values with the second set of predicted values.
A system for predicting events of a process having associated operational variables, the system comprising:
- (a) a process monitor for monitoring operational variables;
- and
- (b) a data processing device for receiving, from the process monitor, data indicative of values of the operational variables, and predicting events based on (i) a relationship between a first set of predicted values for a first set of process operational variables and two or more prior process operational variable values thereof, (ii) a relationship between a second set of predicted values for a second set of process operational variables and two or more prior process operational variable values thereof, and (iii) a relationship between a predicted process event, the first set of predicted values, and the second set of predicted values.
A system for predicting failure in a process having associated operational variables, the system comprising:
- (a) a process monitor for monitoring operational variables;
- and
- (b) a data processing device for receiving, from the process monitor, data indicative of values of the operational variables, and predicting process failure based on (i) a relationship between a first set of predicted values at a first time for a first set of process operational variables and two or more prior process operational variable values thereof, (ii) a relationship between a second set of predicted values at a second time for a second set of process operational variables and two or more prior process operational variable values thereof, and (iii) a relationship between a process failure, the first set of predicted values at a first time, and the second set of predicted values at a second time.
A system for predicting the need for maintenance activities in a process having associated operational variables and process metrics, the system comprising:
- (a) a process monitor for monitoring operational variables;
- and
- (b) a data processing device for receiving, from the process monitor, data indicative of values of the operational variables, and predicting process failure based on (i) a relationship between a first set of predicted values at a first time for a first set of process operational variables and two or more prior process operational variable values thereof, (ii) a relationship between a second set of predicted values at a second time for a second set of process operational variables and two or more prior process operational variable values thereof, and (iii) a relationship between a need for a maintenance activity, the first set of predicted values at a first time, and the second set of predicted values at a second time.
Dependencies are inferred from the claim text.