System, method and computer program for managing credit decisions

A computer system for deciding whether to make a loan to an applicant and/or terms of the loan, said system comprising:

• means for determining credit risk of said applicant;
• means for computing a default probability of said applicant over time based on said credit risk;
• and
• means for computing a sum of expected profit from said loan based in part on said default probability.

A computer program product for deciding whether to make a loan to an applicant and/or the terms of the loan, said computer program product comprising:

• a computer readable medium;
• first program instructions to determine a credit risk of said applicant;
• second program instructions to determine a surviving probability of an applicant based on said credit risk of said applicant;
• third program instructions to determine a default probability for each month of a term of said loan based on said surviving probability;
• and
• fourth program instructions to determine an expected profit during the term of said loan based on said default probability;
• and wherein
• said first, second, third and fourth program instructions are recorded on said medium.

A computer program product for deciding whether to make a loan to an applicant and/or the terms of the loan, said computer program product comprising:

• a computer readable medium;
• first program instructions to determine a risk model for said applicant based on attributes of said applicant;
• second program instructions to determine a default probability of said applicant as a function of time based on said risk model;
• and
• third program instructions to compute a sum of an expected profit from said loan over time based on said default probability;
• and wherein
• said first, second and third program instructions are recorded on said medium.