Method and system of forecasting unscheduled component demand
AssigneeDelta Airlines, Inc.
InventorJohn M. Harris
Life of this patent
Estimating the term…
Abstract
A method of forecasting unscheduled component demand for a plurality of components in a fleet of assemblies includes establishing a set of models to be used for forecasting unscheduled component demand, selecting a best model for each component, and determining a date at which a cumulative probability of unscheduled component demand reaches a predetermined threshold.
Claims11
In system for maintaining a plurality of assemblies including a plurality of replaceable components, a method of determining time intervals at which unscheduled demand for the components is expected to occur, comprising:
- establishing a set of statistical models for a probability of unscheduled component demand as a function of time;
- for each component, collecting historical unscheduled component demand data;
- for each component, using the collected historical unscheduled component demand data to select among the plurality of models one model of the probability of unscheduled component demand as a function of time;
- for each component, selecting a desired serviceable component availability rate, α;
- and
- using the selected model of the probability of unscheduled component demand as a function of time for each component to calculate the time intervals at which the unscheduled component demand is expected to occur.
A method of forecasting unscheduled demand for a plurality of different components, comprising:
- establishing a set of statistical models for modeling unscheduled demand for the components;
- for each component, selecting one of the statistical models for a probability of unscheduled component demand;
- and
- for each component, determining a date at which a cumulative probability of unscheduled component demand reaches a predetermined threshold.
Dependencies are inferred from the claim text.