Providing a message based on a change in watch time

A non-transitory machine-readable storage medium storing instructions which, when executed, cause a processing device to perform operations comprising:

• receiving a request of a user for a content item, wherein the user is associated with at least one of:
• a set of preferences or a context;
• identifying a group of similar users based on at least one of:
• one or more preferences in the set of preferences or the context;
• identifying a number of candidate content items corresponding to the content item;
• identifying, for each candidate content item of the number of candidate content items, a difference between a first value of a measure of interaction associated with a first portion of the group of similar users after being provided the candidate content item and a second value of the measure of interaction associated with a second portion of the group of similar users after having not been provided the candidate content item;
• determining a subset of the number of candidate content items, wherein the difference associated with each candidate content item in the subset satisfies a criterion;
• identifying, for each candidate content item in the subset, an activity rate associated with the corresponding candidate content item;
• identifying, based on at least one of;
• the difference between the first value of the measure of interaction and the second value of the measure of interaction, the activity rate, or the context of the user, a candidate content item of the subset;
• and
• providing, to the user, the candidate content item.

A system comprising:

• a memory;
• and
• a processing device, operatively coupled with the memory, to:
• receive a request of a user for a content item, wherein the user is associated with at least one of:
• a set of preferences or a context;
• identify a group of similar users based on at least one of:
• one or more preferences in the set of preferences or the context;
• identify a number of candidate content items corresponding to the content item;
• identify, for each candidate content item of the number of candidate content items, a difference between a first value of a measure of interaction associated with a first portion of the group of similar users after being provided the corresponding candidate content item and a second value of the measure of interaction associated with a second portion of the group of similar users after having not been provided the corresponding candidate content item;
• determine a subset of the number of candidate content items, wherein the difference associated with each candidate content item in the subset satisfies a criterion;
• identify, for each candidate content item in the subset, an activity rate associated with the corresponding candidate content item;
• identify, based on at least one of the difference between the first value of the measure of interaction and the second value of the measure of interaction, the activity rate, or the context of the user, a candidate content item of the subset;
• and
• provide, to the user, the candidate content item.