Methods and apparatus to determine a conditional probability based on audience member probability distributions for media audience measurement

A method, performed by a computing system, for determining a probability of a co-viewing event in which multiple members of a household were exposed to a media event together, the method comprising:

• obtaining, over a network, and from one or more computing devices located at the household, household data associated with presentation of the media event at the household, wherein the household is located remotely from the computing system;
• based on the household data, determining, for a first member of the household, a first audience probability distribution indicating a likelihood that the first member was exposed to the media event;
• based on the household data, determining, for a second member of the household, a second audience probability distribution indicating a likelihood that the second member was exposed to the media event;
• and
• based on the first audience probability distribution and the second audience probability distribution, determining a probability of a co-viewing event in which the first member and the second member were exposed to the media event together.

An audience measurement computing system for determining a probability of a co-viewing event in which multiple members of a household were exposed to a media event together, the audience measurement computing system comprising:

• an audience measurement meter located at the household and configured to monitor media presented by a television at the household;
• and
• an audience measurement server located remotely from the household and comprising:
• a network interface;
• a processor;
• and
• a non-transitory computer-readable storage medium, having stored thereon program instructions that, upon execution by the processor, cause performance of a set of operations comprising:
• obtaining, via the network interface, over a network, and from the audience measurement meter, household data associated with presentation of a media event at the household;
• based on the household data, determining, for a first member of the household, a first audience probability distribution indicating a likelihood that the first member was exposed to the media event;
• based on the household data, determining, for a second member of the household, a second audience probability distribution indicating a likelihood that the second member was exposed to the media event;
• and
• based on the first audience probability distribution and the second audience probability distribution, determining a probability of a co-viewing event in which the first member and the second member were exposed to the media event together.

An audience measurement server for determining a probability of a co-viewing event in which multiple members of a household were exposed to a media event together, the audience measurement server comprising:

• a network interface;
• a processor;
• and
• a non-transitory computer-readable storage medium, having stored thereon program instructions that, upon execution by the processor, cause performance of a set of operations comprising:
• obtaining, via the network interface, over a network, and from an audience measurement meter located at the household, household data associated with presentation of a media event at the household;
• based on the household data, determining, for a first member of the household, a first audience probability distribution indicating a likelihood that the first member was exposed to the media event;
• based on the household data, determining, for a second member of the household, a second audience probability distribution indicating a likelihood that the second member was exposed to the media event;
• and
• based on the first audience probability distribution and the second audience probability distribution, determining a probability of a co-viewing event in which the first member and the second member were exposed to the media event together.