Model-based road estimation

A computer-implemented method for estimating a road geometry of a road upon which a vehicle is traveling, the method comprising:

• for each time step out of a plurality of consecutive time steps:
• predicting a filter state by determining a probability density of each road model hypothesis out of a plurality of road model hypotheses comprised by the filter state based on vehicle motion data and a prior filter state determined at a preceding time step, wherein the filter state is tracked by a tracking filter and the road geometry is described by the filter state, wherein each road model hypothesis out of the plurality of road model hypotheses is associated with a probability and comprises a parametrization of the road describing a geometry of one or more lanes of the road and wherein each lane of each road model hypothesis is associated with a probability of existence;
• associating road features obtained from perception data derived from an output of one or more vehicle-mounted sensors with the parametrization of the road of each road model hypothesis of the predicted filter state to establish a road feature association;
• determining an existence probability for each lane of each road model hypothesis based on a prior existence probability for each corresponding lane determined at the preceding time step and the established road feature association;
• determining a probability of each road model hypothesis of the plurality of road model hypotheses based on the prior filter state determined at the preceding time step and the determined existence probability of each lane of that road model hypothesis;
• selecting the road model hypothesis associated with a highest probability based on the determined probability of each road model hypothesis;
• outputting a road model based on the parametrization of the road of the selected road model hypothesis, wherein the road model is output to a path planning function of an automated driving system of the vehicle, the path planning function being configured to generate paths for the vehicle to execute;
• and
• controlling, via control circuitry, steering, throttle, or brakes of the vehicle to execute the paths.