System and method for environment-dependent probabilistic tropical cyclone modeling

A machine-learning based method for simulating TCs and assessing TC risk, comprising:

• generating a plurality of synthetic TCs, from genesis to lysis over an entire basin, by:
• estimating a location and time of storm formation via a genesis module, the genesis module configured to develop a Poisson regression and TC genesis simulation on a plurality of clustering grids;
• determining a current in situ wind;
• estimating movement of the storm via a track module, the track module configured to determine movement of a TC by both analog predictors formed by historical track patterns and current in situ wind;
• and
• estimating change of intensity of the TC via an intensity module, the intensity module configured to determine intensity change of the TC by considering three hidden discrete states of storm intensity change and associating each state with a probability distribution of intensity change;
• and
• assessing hazards or risks of the plurality of synthetic TCs.

A non-transitory computer-readable medium having stored thereon a computer program for execution by a processor configured to perform a machine-learning based method for simulating TCs and assessing TC risk, the method comprising:

• generating a plurality of synthetic TCs, from genesis to lysis over an entire basin, by:
• estimating a location and time of storm formation via a genesis module, the genesis module configured to develop a Poisson regression and TC genesis simulation on a plurality of clustering grids;
• determining a current in situ wind;
• estimating movement of the storm via a track module, the track module configured to determine movement of a TC by both analog predictors formed by historical track patterns and current in situ wind;
• and
• estimating change of intensity of the TC via an intensity module, the intensity module configured to determine intensity change of the TC by considering three hidden discrete states of storm intensity change and associating each state with a probability distribution of intensity change;
• and
• assessing hazards or risks of the plurality of synthetic TCs.