Assessment method and device for infectious disease transmission, computer equipment and storage medium

An assessment method for infectious disease transmission, comprising:

• actively acquiring, by a computer system and for each of a plurality of time slices of a target time period, respective target track data corresponding to assessment objects within a preset area and associating the acquired target track data with corresponding subareas of the preset area, wherein
• the preset area comprises a plurality of subareas,
• the actively acquiring includes sampling only the subarea having a number of persons that is greater than or equal to a preset threshold, and
• the target track data are historical track data and/or predicted track data;
• processing, by the computer system, the acquired target track data to determine a matching subarea to which each assessment object matches in each time slice based on the target track data, the matching subarea being one of the plurality of subareas;
• executing, by the computer system, an infectious disease model to assess, for an initial time slice as a first time slice and at least one of the plurality of subareas taken as a target subarea in the first time slice, the assessment subjects within the target subarea based on preset initial infection parameters to determine a transmission trend of an infectious disease among the assessment subjects within the preset area in the first time slice;
• updating, by the computer system and based on the determined transmission trend for the preceding time slice, at least one of the infection parameters and the target track data for the corresponding assessment objects,
• wherein the updating comprises updating, for each subarea, one or more infection-state categories of the assessment objects, including infected subjects, carriers, recovered persons, or uninfected subjects, based on the determined transmission trend for the preceding time slice;
• executing, by the computer system, the infectious disease model to assess, for a next time slice as a second time slice and another one of the plurality of subareas taken as the target subarea in the second time slice, the assessment objects within the target subarea based on the updated infection parameters to determine the transmission trend of the infectious disease among the assessment subjects within the preset area in the second time slice, wherein the updating of the infection parameters and the target track data and the executing of the infectious disease model are performed until the end of the target time period to determine the transmission trend of the infectious disease among the assessment objects within the preset area during the target time period;
• and
• outputting, by the computer system to a user, the transmission trend determined for the target time period.