Drilling activity recommendation system and method

A system for planning a well, the system comprising:

• one or more processors;
• and
• a memory system including one or more non-transitory, computer-readable media storing instructions that, when executed by at least one of the one or more processors, cause a computing system to perform operations, the operations comprising:
• receiving:
• an initial drill plan including an initial sequence of activities;
• an offset well drilling run statistical tree;
• and a current recommendation of one or more sequences of activities for drilling a target well;
• analyzing the initial drill plan;
• iteratively, from an earliest subject activity to a latest subject activity of the initial sequence of activities of the initial drill plan:
• selecting a respective subject activity of the initial sequence of activities of the initial drill plan;
• analyzing the current recommendation of the one or more sequences of activities;
• selecting a sequence of activities of the one or more sequences of activities that terminates at a prior activity that is prior to the subject activity, wherein the prior activity comprises the respective subject activity of a previous iteration;
• determining a sequence of activities including the prior activity, the subject activity, and one or more drilling activities that occur between the prior activity and the subject activity that are determined based on a conditional probability of an occurrence of the one or more drilling activities in the offset well drilling run statistical tree,
• wherein the offset well drilling run statistical tree is based on one or more offset well drilling activity logs and includes probabilities for activities in sequences of drilling activities, and
• wherein the determining the one or more drilling activities includes determining a most probable path between the prior activity and the subject activity in the offset well drilling run statistical tree;
• analyzing the determined sequence of the activities;
• adding the determined sequence of activities to the current recommendation;
• and
• augmenting the sequence of activities of the initial drill plan based on the determined sequence of activities to generate a modified drill plan for drilling the target well, wherein the modified drill plan includes the augmented sequence of activities;
• and
• drilling, by an automated well drilling system, according to the augmented sequence of activities of the modified drill plan, wherein the drilling comprises:
• performing the prior activity;
• performing the one or more drilling activities after performing the prior activity;
• and
• performing the subject activity after performing the one or more drilling activities.

A non-transitory computer-readable storage medium storing instructions that when executed by a computer, which includes a processor performs a method, the method comprising:

• receiving:
• an initial drill plan including an initial sequence of activities;
• an offset well drilling run statistical tree;
• and a current recommendation of one or more sequences of activities for drilling a target well;
• analyzing the initial drill plan;
• iteratively, from an earliest subject activity to a latest subject activity of the initial sequence of activities of the initial drill plan:
• selecting a respective subject activity of the initial sequence of activities of the initial drill plan;
• analyzing the current recommendation of the one or more sequences of activities;
• selecting a sequence of activities of the one or more sequences of activities that terminates at a prior activity that is prior to the subject activity, wherein the prior activity comprises the respective subject activity of a previous iteration;
• determining a sequence of activities including the prior activity, the subject activity, and one or more drilling activities that occur between the prior activity and the subject activity that are determined based on a conditional probability of an occurrence of the one or more drilling activities in the offset well drilling run statistical tree,
• wherein the offset well drilling run statistical tree is based on one or more offset well drilling activity logs and includes probabilities for activities in sequences of drilling activities, and
• wherein the determining the one or more drilling activities includes determining a most probable path between the prior activity and the subject activity in the offset well drilling run statistical tree;
• analyzing the determined sequence of the activities;
• adding the determined sequence of activities to the current recommendation;
• and
• augmenting the sequence of activities of the initial drill plan based on the determined sequence of activities to generate a modified drill plan for drilling the target well, wherein the modified drill plan includes the augmented sequence of activities;
• and
• drilling, by an automated well drilling system, according to the augmented sequence of activities of the modified drill plan, wherein the drilling comprises:
• performing the prior activity;
• performing the one or more drilling activities after performing the prior activity;
• and
• performing the subject activity after performing the one or more drilling activities.