Real-time probability determined iteratively throughout a period of time

A method, comprising:

• determining, by a processor and in real-time iteratively throughout a period of time, an achievable coach seat demand for a flight (demandcoach) of an airplane based on a forecast and bookings for coach seats plus a demand for coach seats for a timeframe from an analysis date to a date of departure of the airplane, wherein the airplane comprises a plurality of seats, and wherein the seats are associated with at least one of a first class of service (first) or a second class of service (coach);
• wherein the determining demandcoach comprises bookings for coach seats plus the demand for coach seats based on a forecast for a timeframe from an analysis date to the scheduled departure of the flight;
• adjusting, by the processor and in real-time iteratively throughout the period of time, demandcoach for an error in the forecast;
• and
• executing, by the processor and in real-time iteratively throughout the period of time and using the demandcoach, a probability that the seatfirst will be sold, a probability that the seatcoach will be sold, a seatcoach demand price, a seatfirst demand price and an upgrade analysis for each of the unbooked first class seats until at least one of:
• an additional coach seat (EMSRcoach) being less than or equal to an additional first class seat (EMSRfirst), the total upgrade seats greater than or equal to a predetermined maximum, the total upgrade seats greater than or equal to a predetermined percentage of the CAP, or the total upgrade seats greater than or equal to a predetermined percentage of the total number of seats in first class;
• standardizing, by the processor, the demandcoach, the EMSRfirst and the EMSRcoach into a common format in a database,
• the upgrade analysis comprising:
• determining, by the processor and in real-time, that there is excess demandcoach;
• determining, by the processor and in real-time, an expected marginal seat revenue for a sale of the EMSRfirst on the flight, wherein the EMSRfirst is equal to the seatfirst demand price multiplied by the probability that the seatfirst will be sold flight by multiplying a demand price of the additional first class seat by the probability that the first class seat will be sold,
• wherein EMSRfirst is a function of demand and likelihood that a ticket will be sold, and
• wherein the demand decreases as time gets closer to the departure time of the flight;
• determining, by the processor and in real-time, an expected marginal seat revenue for a sale of the EMSRcoach on the flight, wherein the EMSRcoach is equal to the seatcoach demand price multiplied by the probability that the seatcoach will be sold by multiplying a demand price of the additional coach seat by the probability that the coach seat will be sold,
• wherein EMSRcoach is a function of demand and likelihood that a ticket will be sold, and
• wherein the demand decreases as time gets closer to the departure time of the flight;
• adjusting, by the processor and in real-time, for the risk of double sell, wherein a first class seat is sold for coach pricing and the first class seat is also sold for first class pricing;
• and
• in response to determining and in real-time, by the processor, that the EMSRcoach is greater than the EMSRfirst, which is the optimal time to authorize a total number of upgrade seats to be sold, updating an upgrade authorization parameter equal the total number of upgrade seats to be sold for a period of time until excess of demandcoach is reduced before the scheduled departure of the flight.