System for simulating urban spatial growth by coupling urban development with water resources environmental carrying capacity

A method for simulating urban spatial growth by coupling urban development with water resources environmental carrying capacity, comprising:

• step of dynamic evaluation for a water resources carrying capacity to evaluate and predict a maximum scale of an urban space;
• step of identification for a water ecological sensitive area to identify water ecological security patterns and determine-spatial regions that need to be avoided during urban spatial growth;
• and
• step of simulation for urban land use change to predict spatial layout features of urban land under different water ecological sensitive area protection modes and urban spatial growth scales;
• wherein the step of simulation for urban land use change comprises:
• executing an urban land use change simulation model to establish a simulation model for urban land use changes based on historical land use change patterns;
• and
• executing an urban land use change scenario simulation to simulate and predict urban land use changes under different scenarios of water resources environmental protection and development, to generate simulation results for urban spatial growth coupled with water resources environmental carrying capacity;
• wherein the simulation for urban land use change further comprising steps:
• 1) name data layers and assign values to grid cells based on data material categories to obtain driving factor layers for urban land use changes;
• 2) calculate spatial autocorrelation factors (Autocov) using the following formula:
• Autocov
• i
• =
• ∑
• i
• ≠
• j
• ⁢
• W
• ij
• ⁢
• y
• j
• ∑
• i
• ≠
• j
• ⁢
• W
• ij
• wherein yj represents a land use state of grid cell j, assigned with values of 1 and 0;
• Wij represents a spatial weight between grid cell i and grid cell j, determined using inverse distance weighting, with a specific calculation method as follows:
• W
• ij
• =
• {
• 1
• D
• ij
• ,
• when
• ⁢
• D
• ij
• <
• 300
• 0
• ,
• when
• ⁢
• D
• ij
• ≥
• 300
• wherein Dij represents a Euclidean distance between grid cell i and grid cell j;
• 3) perform a multicollinearity test on driving factors;
• 4) reclassify the historical land use raster data;
• 5) run R language programs;
• and
• 6) output simulation results;
• the step of dynamic evaluation for a water resources carrying capacity comprising steps:
• simulate and quantify supply capacity of various conventional and unconventional water resources in a region where a city is located;
• simulate and quantify water resource demand of urban and rural areas;
• simulate and quantify a feedback process of improving environmental water quality and reducing pollutant emissions under water pollution pressure;
• simulate and quantify a feedback process of improving water resource utilization efficiency under water supply pressure;
• and
• simulate and quantify impact of urban development on water supply-demand balance and water pollution pressure;
• and
• the step of identification for a water ecological sensitive area comprises a step for water ecological security pattern construction to form a spatial pattern composed of local areas, points, and spatial relationships that play a key role in maintaining ecological security;
• and to extract important spatial regions that protect the health of water ecological environments.