Systems and methods for predicting and controlling tailpipe NOx conversion and ammonia slip based on degradation of an aftertreatment system

A method, comprising:

• retrieving, by a controller coupled to an aftertreatment system and from a memory, a model of a catalyst of the aftertreatment system generated based on at least historical data from at least one sensor upstream of the catalyst and at least one sensor downstream of the catalyst;
• predicting, by the controller using the model, a first value sensed by the sensor upstream of the catalyst and a second value sensed by the sensor downstream of the catalyst;
• and
• controlling, by the controller, reductant dosing from a doser based on the predicted second value, wherein the historical data comprises an operation time of the catalyst, a number of regenerations of the catalyst, a plurality of values from the sensor upstream of the catalyst during the operation time, and a plurality of values from the sensor downstream of the catalyst during the operation time.

A system, comprising:

• at least one processing circuit comprising at least one memory coupled to at least one processor, the at least one processing circuit configured to:
• predict, using a model of a catalyst of an aftertreatment system generated based on at least historical data from at least one sensor upstream of the catalyst and at least one sensor downstream of the catalyst, a first value sensed by the sensor upstream of the catalyst and a second value sensed by the sensor downstream of the catalyst, wherein the historical data comprises an operation time of the catalyst, a number of regenerations of the catalyst, a plurality of values from the sensor upstream of the catalyst during the operation time, and a plurality of values from the sensor downstream of the catalyst during the operation time;
• receive a third value sensed by the sensor downstream of the catalyst;
• determine a fault with a doser responsive to a comparison between the second value and the third value exceeding a threshold;
• and
• provide, responsive to the determination, an indication of the fault to an operator device.