Systems and methods to aggregate distributed energy resources

A system of distributed energy resources (DERs), the system comprising:

• an aggregation engine to communicate over a network with a plurality of site controllers of a plurality of sites, each of the plurality of sites comprising one or more DERs that provide power to an electrical system, each site controller of the plurality of site controllers to control a DER of the one or more DERs, the aggregation engine to:
• receive an aggregation opportunity indicative of a requested power level production over a period of time of a response event of the aggregation opportunity;
• provide, over the network, for each of the plurality of site controllers, an engagement rule set indicative of a proposed change in power during a proposed period of time, the proposed change in power comprising multiple power levels for multiple portions of the proposed period of time, wherein each of the plurality of site controllers is configured to:
• use the engagement rule set to determine a marginal cost of participation for a respective site of the plurality of sites to participate in the response event of the aggregation opportunity, based at least on a predicted future load of the respective site determined using a corrected load shape of the respective site generated using at least a scale and an offset of a load shape of the respective site determined from observed load values corresponding to a local load of the respective site;
• and
• define a hypothetical control parameter to control a DER of the respective site to meet the proposed change in power according to a plurality of segments of the period of time to minimize the marginal cost of participation for the respective site;
• and
• control operation of one or more of the plurality of DERs by instructing, over the network, one or more of the plurality of site controllers to schedule one or more of the plurality of DERs for participation in the response event, responsive to one or more determined marginal costs of participation from each of the plurality of site controllers.