High-precision solar resource assessment method based on downscaling method for complex terrain

A high-precision solar resource assessment method based on a downscaling method for complex terrain, comprising:

• step (1), calculating an average climatic field based on monitoring data of sunshine durations, obtaining, based on the average climatic field, climatic field interpolation results, and creating a climatic field based on the climatic field interpolation results;
• step (2), calculating a difference between data of the sunshine durations and the climatic field, obtaining, based on the difference, anomaly field interpolation results, and creating an anomaly field based on the anomaly field interpolation results, comprising:
• performing, by using a thin-plate smoothing spline function with an elevation as a covariate, spatial interpolation on an anomaly value to obtain the anomaly field interpolation results, wherein a precision of the spatial interpolation is consistent with a precision required for solar resource assessment, and the difference between the data of the sunshine durations and the climatic field is the anomaly value;
• step (3), overlaying the climatic field interpolation results and the anomaly field interpolation results, comprising:
• overlaying the climatic field interpolation results and the anomaly field interpolation results with consistent spatial resolutions to obtain high-precision sunshine duration interpolation results;
• step (4), performing bias adjustment on the high-precision sunshine duration interpolation results obtained in the step (3) based on the monitoring data of the sunshine durations to obtain final results;
• step (5), estimating daily solar radiation based on the sunshine durations and extraterrestrial solar radiation, wherein a formula for estimating the daily solar radiation is expressed as follows:
• SR
• short
• =
• (
• 0
• .
• 2
• ⁢
• 5
• +
• H
• ⁢
• o
• ⁢
• u
• ⁢
• r
• 1
• 2
• ⁢
• H
• ⁢
• o
• ⁢
• u
• ⁢
• r
• 2
• )
• ·
• SR
• extra
• where SRshort represents shortwave radiation, and the shortwave radiation is used to assess a solar resource, in units of mega joules per square meter (MJ/m2);
• SRextra represents the extraterrestrial solar radiation, in units of MJ/m2;
• Hour1 represents an actual sunshine duration on a day, in units of hours (h);
• and Hour2 represents a maximum possible sunshine duration on a day, in units of h, and a formula of the maximum possible sunshine duration on the day is expressed as follows:
• Hour
• 2
• =
• 24
• ·
• Sundip
• 1
• π
• where Sundip1 represents a sunset hour angle, in units of radians (rad), and a formula of the sunset hour angle is expressed as follows:
• Sundip1=arccos (−tan (Lat)·tan (Sundip2))
• where Lat represents a latitude, in units of rad;
• and Sundip2 represents a solar declination angle, in units of rad, and a formula of the solar declination angle is expressed as follows:
• Sundip
• 2
• =
• 0.409
• ·
• sin
• ⁡
• (
• 2
• ·
• π
• ·
• Date
• 1
• Date
• 2
• -
• 1.39
• )
• where Date1 represents a day of a year, which is an ordinal number of the day in the year;
• and Date2 represents a total number of days of the year, which is 365 for a common year, or 366 for a leap year;
• and
• wherein a formula of the extraterrestrial solar radiation SRextra is expressed as follows:
• SR
• extra
• =
• 1
• ⁢
• 18.08
• ·
• Distance
• π
• ·
• (
• Sundip
• 1
• ·
• sin
• ⁡
• (
• Lat
• )
• ·
• sin
• ⁡
• (
• Sundip
• 2
• )
• +
• cos
• ⁢
• (
• Lat
• )
• ·
• cos
• ⁡
• (
• Sundip
• 2
• )
• ·
• sin
• ⁡
• (
• Sundip
• 2
• )
• )
• where SRextra represents the extraterrestrial solar radiation, in units of MJ/m2;
• Lat represents a latitude, in units of rad;
• Sundip1 represents a sunset hour angle, in units of rad;
• Sundip2 represents a solar declination angle, in units of rad;
• and Distance represents a relative Sun-Earth distance, in units of astronomical units (AU), and a formula of the relative Sun-Earth distance is expressed as follows:
• Distance
• =
• 1
• +
• 0.33
• ·
• cos
• ⁡
• (
• 2
• ·
• π
• ·
• Date
• 1
• Date
• 2
• )
• where Date1 represents a day of a year, which is an ordinal number of the day in the year;
• and Date2 represents a total number of days of the year, which is 365 for a common year, or 366 for a leap year;
• and
• step (6), converting the daily solar radiation obtained from the step (5) as multi-scale cumulative solar radiation for years in a target region, and then performing, using the multi-scale cumulative solar radiation, solar energy resource assessment to obtain a solar energy resource result in the target region;
• in respond to the solar energy resource result exceeding a target energy demand in the target region, determining an optimal location of a solar power plant in the target region, then establishing the solar power plant in the optimal location;
• in respond to the solar energy resource result being less than the target energy demand in the target region, determining the optimal location of the solar power plant in the target region, and determining optimal system capacity of the solar power plant based on the solar energy resource result to ensure stable power supply during a period of scarce solar energy resources, then establishing the solar power plant with the optimal system capacity in the optimal location.