Disturbance estimating apparatus, method, and computer program

A disturbance estimation apparatus, comprising:

• a navigation data receiver configured to acquire navigation data including actual position and time of a ship on a water surface;
• a thrust data receiver configured to receive thrust data indicating a magnitude and a direction of a thrust force of the ship;
• a basic data receiver configured to acquire basic data including at least one of a time, tidal current information, and wind information at a specific time, and
• processing circuitry configured to:
• estimate a predicted position of the ship under an absence of a disturbance condition at a predetermined time in the future by inputting the navigation data and the thrust data into a first trained model, wherein the first trained model outputs the predicted position at the predetermined time in the future based on an input including the navigation data and the thrust data;
• determine disturbance data including a drift direction of the ship drifted by an external force based on a difference between the predicted position estimated by the first trained model and an actual position of the ship at the predetermined time;
• estimate a predicted drifting position of the ship drifted by the disturbance during navigation, by inputting the basic data, the predicted position, and the predetermined time into a second trained model which outputs the predicted drifting position.

A disturbance estimation method, comprising:

• receiving navigation data including an actual position and time of a ship on a water surface;
• receiving thrust data indicating a magnitude and a direction of a thrust force of the ship;
• estimating a predicted position of the ship under an absence of a disturbance condition at a predetermined time in the future using a kinetic model of a body of the ship based on the navigation data and the thrust data;
• determining disturbance data including a drift direction of the ship drifted by an external force based on a difference between the predicted position estimated by the kinetic model and an actual position of the ship at the predetermined time;
• estimating the predicted position of the ship at the predetermined time using the kinetic model of the body of the ship under the disturbance caused by a tidal current based on information from a tidal current meter;
• and
• determining the disturbance data including the drift direction of the ship drifted by wind based on the difference between the predicted position estimated by the kinetic model of the body of the ship and the actual position of the ship at the predetermined time.

A disturbance estimation method, comprising:

• receiving navigation data including an actual position and time of a ship on a water surface;
• receiving thrust data indicating a magnitude and a direction of a thrust force of the ship;
• acquiring basic data including at least one of a time, tidal current information, and wind information at a specific time;
• estimating a predicted position of the ship under an absence of a disturbance condition at a predetermined time in the future by inputting the navigation data and the thrust data into a first trained model, wherein the first trained model outputs the predicted position at the predetermined time in the future based on an input including the navigation data and the thrust data;
• determining disturbance data including a drift direction of the ship drifted by an external force based on a difference between the predicted position estimated by the first trained model and an actual position of the ship at the predetermined time;
• and
• estimate a predicted drifting position of the ship drifted by the disturbance during navigation, by inputting the basic data, the predicted position, and the predetermined time into a second trained model which outputs the predicted drifting position.