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US 12,286,597 B2Granted
Forecasting the progress of coking and fouling for improved production planning in chemical production plants
AssigneeBASF SE
InventorsSimeon Sauer, Daniel Keck, Eric Jenne, Alexander Badinski, Miriam Angela Anna Hahkala, Bart Blankers, Hendrik De Winne, Britta Carolin Buck
Life of this patent
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Abstract
In order to predict the future evolution of a health-state of an equipment and/or a processing unit of a chemical production plant, e.g., a steam cracker, a computer-implemented method is provided, which builds a data-driven model for the future key performance indicator based on the key performance indicator of today, the processing condition of today, and the processing condition over a prediction horizon.
Claims14
A computer-implemented method (100) for predicting a progress of degradation in an equipment of a chemical production plant, comprising:
- a) obtaining (110) a future value of at least one operating parameter of the equipment within a prediction horizon that defines a first future time period over which the progress of degradation in the equipment is predicted, wherein the at least one operating parameter has an influence on the degradation of the equipment, and
- wherein the at least one operating parameter is known and/or controllable over the prediction horizon, such that the future value of the at least one operating parameter can be determined over the prediction horizon;
- b) using (120) a prediction model to estimate a future value of at least one key performance indicator within the prediction horizon based on an input data set comprising the future value of the at least one operating parameter,
- wherein the prediction model is parametrized or trained based on a sample set including historical data of at least one process variable and the at least one operating parameter, wherein the at least one process variable is used to determine the at least one key performance indicator;
- and
- c) predicting (130) the progress of degradation in the equipment within the prediction horizon based on the future value of the at least one key performance indicator;
- wherein the progress of degradation comprises one or more of:
- a heat exchanger that suffers from a coking or other fouling process due to at least one of coke layer formation, polymerization, microbial deposits, and inorganic deposits;
- a pipe where mass flow is impeded by a coking or other fouling process due to coke layer formation and/or polymerization;
- a fixed bed reactor that suffers from a coking or other fouling process due to coke layer formation, polymerization, and/or deposits of solid material originating from an upstream unit operation;
- a fluidized bed reactor that suffers from a coking or other fouling process due to coke layer formation, polymerization, and/or deposits of solid material originating from an upstream unit operation;
- a fluidized bed reactor that suffers from a coking or other fouling process due to coke layer formation, polymerization and/or deposits of solid material originating from an upstream unit operation;
- and
- a filter, the efficiency of which deteriorates due to polymerization and/or deposits of solid material originating from an upstream unit operation.
11 more elements
An apparatus (200) for predicting a progress of degradation in an equipment of a chemical production plant, comprising:
- a) an input unit (210) configured for receiving a future value of at least one operating parameter of the equipment within a prediction horizon that defines a first future time period over which the progress of degradation in the equipment is predicted,
- wherein the at least one operating parameter has an influence on the degradation of the equipment, and
- wherein the at least one operating parameter is known and/or controllable over a prediction horizon;
- b) a processing unit (220) configured for:
- using a prediction model to estimate a future value of at least one key performance indicator within the prediction horizon based on an input data set comprising the future value of the at least one operating parameter,
- wherein the prediction model is parametrized or trained based on a sample set including historical data of the at least one process variable and the at least one operating parameter, wherein the at least one process variable is used to determine the at least one key performance indicator;
- and
- predicting the progress of degradation in the equipment within the prediction horizon based on the future value of the at least one key performance indicator;
- and
- c) an output unit (230) configured for outputting the predicted progress of degradation in the equipment
- wherein the progress of degradation comprises one or more of:
- a heat exchanger that suffers from a coking or other fouling process due to at least one of coke layer formation, polymerization, microbial deposits, and inorganic deposits;
- a pipe where mass flow is impeded by a coking or other fouling process due to coke layer formation and/or polymerization;
- a fixed bed reactor that suffers from a coking or other fouling process due to coke layer formation, polymerization, and/or deposits of solid material originating from an upstream unit operation;
- a fluidized bed reactor that suffers from a coking or other fouling process due to coke layer formation, polymerization, and/or deposits of solid material originating from an upstream unit operation;
- a fluidized bed reactor that suffers from a coking or other fouling process due to coke layer formation, polymerization and/or deposits of solid material originating from an upstream unit operation;
- and
- a filter, the efficiency of which deteriorates due to polymerization and/or deposits of solid material originating from an upstream unit operation.
15 more elements
Dependencies are inferred from the claim text.