# US 12,213,739 B2 · Homeland explosive consequence and threat (HExCAT) modeling and medical mitigation tool

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- Number: US 12,213,739 B2
- Document ID: US12213739B2
- Status: Granted
- Kind: B2
- Application number: 18/233,738
- Filed: 2023-08-14
- Published: 2024-07-04
- Granted: 2025-02-04
- Earliest claimed: 2021-01-14
- Assignees: The Government of the United States of America, as represented by the Secretary of Homeland Security
- Applicants: The Government of the United States of America, as represented by the Secretary of Homeland Security
- Inventors: Rachel Gooding; Alexander Dolan; David Bradley; Kevin Wegman; Patrick Wilson; Brian Hawkins; Timothy Davis; Thomas Kirsch
- Web page: https://patentgrep.com/patent/US12213739B2

## CPC

- A61B 34/10: Computer-aided planning, simulation or modelling of surgical operations
- G06Q 10/0635: Risk analysis of enterprise or organisation activities
- G06Q 10/0674: {using process simulation}
- G06Q 50/22: Social work or social welfare, e.g. community support activities or counselling services
- G06Q 50/265: {Personal security, identity or safety}
- G16H 40/20: for the management or administration of healthcare resources or facilities, e.g. managing hospital staff or surgery rooms
- G16H 50/80: for detecting, monitoring or modelling epidemics or pandemics, e.g. flu
- A61B 2034/105: {Modelling of the patient, e.g. for ligaments or bones}
- A61B: DIAGNOSIS; SURGERY; IDENTIFICATION (usefulness limited to only animals A61D)
- G06Q: INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G16H: HEALTHCARE INFORMATICS, i.e. INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR THE HANDLING OR PROCESSING OF MEDICAL OR HEALTHCARE DATA

## Abstract

A system to estimate consequences of an explosion includes a scenario generator to generate a scenario based on user input and scenario parameters; an explosive device model generator to generate an explosive device model based on the user input and explosive device parameters; a propagation of hazards modeler to model propagation of hazards into the scenario based on the user input and hazard parameters; an injury modeler to model injuries corresponding to modeling propagation of hazards into the scenario based on injury parameters; and an iteration and output generator to iterate by using additional iterative subsets of the parameters to generate the scenario, generate the explosive device model, model propagation of hazards, and model injuries, until parameter spaces of the parameters are covered. The iteration and output generator generates an injury record based injury outcomes from the modeling of injuries corresponding to the iterating.

## Claims

### Claim 1

A computerized method to model consequences of an explosion, comprising:
(a) receiving, by a computing system, user input including parameters for generating and modeling a scenario, explosion device model, and propagation of hazards and injuries;
(b) generating, by the computing system, the scenario based on the user input and an iterative subset of scenario parameters, the user input indicating an indoor explosion target or an outdoor explosion target, the generating the scenario further comprising communicating, by the computing system, with geospatial databases, retrieving geospatial data from the geospatial databases, and modeling the geospatial data based on a three-dimensional grid of cells, the computing system discretizing space representing the scenario into the three-dimensional grid of cells;
(c) generating, by the computing system, an explosive device model based on the user input and an iterative subset of explosive device parameters;
(d) modeling, by the computing system, propagation of hazards into the scenario based on the user input and an iterative subset of hazard parameters, the computing system applying the hazard parameters to the three-dimensional grid of cells, the hazards corresponding to detonation of the explosive device model;
(e) modeling, by the computing system, injuries corresponding to the modeling propagation of hazards into the scenario, based on an iterative subset of injury parameters, the modeling injuries comprising applying population density to the three-dimensional grid of cells;
(f) modeling, by the computing system, a medical mitigation response based on the injuries and an iterative subset of medical mitigation parameters;
the scenario parameters, the explosive device parameters, the hazard parameters, the injury parameters, and the medical mitigation parameters being distributions applied to Monte-Carlo probabilistic simulations to generate and model the scenario, the explosion device model, the propagation of hazards and injuries, and the medical mitigation response;
(g) iterating, by the computing system, based on the iterative subsets of scenario parameters, the explosive device parameters, the hazard parameters, the injury parameters, and the medical mitigation parameters until the discretized space representing the scenario is covered, thereby generating the scenario, generating the explosive device model, modeling propagation of hazards, modeling injuries, and modeling the medical mitigation response; and
(h) generating, by the computing system, a medical mitigation response record based on the modeling of a plurality of medical mitigation response outcomes corresponding to the iterating.

### Claim 2 (depends on 1)

The method of claim 1, wherein modeling the medical mitigation response comprises assigning victims into groups according to injury exposure as expressed by parameters assigned to a given group.

### Claim 3 (depends on 2)

The method of claim 2, further comprising modeling the medical mitigation response using stock-and-flow modeling by moving the given group through a plurality of stocks according to the parameters assigned to the given group.

### Claim 4 (depends on 3)

The method of claim 3, further comprising:
assigning the given group to an injured stock following an attack event; and
assigning the given group a time for symptom onset parameter.

### Claim 5 (depends on 4)

The method of claim 4, further comprising:
moving the given group from the injured stock to a symptomatic stock after countdown of the time for symptom onset parameter; and
assigning the given group a time for admission event.

### Claim 6 (depends on 5)

The method of claim 5, further comprising:
moving the given group from the symptomatic stock to an access to medical care stock after countdown of the time for admission event; and
assigning the given group a time to treatment.

### Claim 7 (depends on 6)

The method of claim 6, further comprising:
moving the given group from the access to medical care stock to a candidates for treatment stock after countdown of the time to treatment; and
routing the given group, by performing checks using a tiered approach, into a treatment stock.

### Claim 8

A system to estimate consequences of an explosion, comprising:
a computer system, including:
a processing system having a hardware processor configured to perform a predefined set of basic operations by loading corresponding ones of a predefined native instruction set of codes, the predefined native instruction set of codes constituting a set of instructions selectable for execution by the hardware processor;
a memory accessible to the processing system; and
a user interface controller under control of the processing system;
(a) user interface logic, stored in the memory, comprising a sequence of instructions selected from the predefined native instruction set of codes of the hardware processor, adapted to operate with the processing system and the user interface controller to implement a user interface adapted to prompt for user input and receive the user input including parameters for generating and modeling a scenario, explosion device model, propagation of hazards and injuries, and medical mitigation;
a communication system, under control of the processing system, adapted to:
transmit requests for datasets used by logic for generating scenarios, generating explosive device models, modeling propagation of hazards, modeling injuries, and modeling medical mitigation responses, and
receive the datasets;
(b) scenario generating logic, stored in the memory, comprising a respective sequence of instructions selected from the predefined native instruction set of codes of the hardware processor, adapted to generate a scenario based on the user input indicating an indoor explosion target or an outdoor explosion target, the scenario generating logic further comprising instructions adapted to communicate with geospatial databases, retrieve geospatial data from the geospatial databases, model the geospatial data based on a three-dimensional grid of cells, and discretize space representing the scenario into the three-dimensional grid of cells;
(c) explosive device model logic, stored in the memory, comprising a respective sequence of instructions selected from the predefined native instruction set of codes of the hardware processor, adapted to generate an explosive device model based on the user input and an iterative subset of explosive device parameters;
(d) propagation of hazards logic, stored in the memory, comprising a respective sequence of instructions selected from the predefined native instruction set of codes of the hardware processor, adapted to model propagation of hazards into the scenario based on the user input and an iterative subset of hazard parameters, and apply the hazard parameters to the three-dimensional grid of cells, the hazards corresponding to detonation of the explosive device model;
(e) injury modeler logic, stored in the memory, comprising a respective sequence of instructions selected from the predefined native instruction set of codes of the hardware processor, adapted to model injuries, corresponding to the modeling propagation of hazards into the scenario, based on an iterative subset of injury parameters, the injury modeler logic further adapted to apply population density to the three-dimensional grid of cells;
(f) medical mitigation response modeler logic, stored in the memory, comprising a respective sequence of instructions selected from the predefined native instruction set of codes of the hardware processor, adapted to model a medical mitigation response based on the injuries and an iterative subset of medical mitigation parameters;
the scenario parameters, the explosive device parameters, the hazard parameters, the injury parameters, and the medical mitigation parameters being distributions applied to Monte-Carlo probabilistic simulations to generate and model the scenario, the explosion device model, the propagation of hazards and injuries, and the medical mitigation response;
(g) iteration logic, stored in the memory, comprising a respective sequence of instructions selected from the predefined native instruction set of codes of the hardware processor, adapted to iterate based on the iterative subsets of scenario parameters, the explosive device parameters, the hazard parameters, the injury parameters, and the medical mitigation parameters until the discretized space representing the scenario is covered, thereby generating the scenario, generating the explosive device model, modeling propagation of hazards, modeling injuries, and modeling the medical mitigation response; and
(h) output logic, stored in the memory, comprising a respective sequence of instructions selected from the predefined native instruction set of codes of the hardware processor, adapted to generate a medical mitigation response record based on modeling of a plurality of medical mitigation response outcomes corresponding to the iterating;
the processing system being further configured to output the medical mitigation response record when iteration is completed.

### Claim 9 (depends on 8)

The system of claim 8, wherein the medical mitigation response modeler logic comprises instructions further adapted to assign victims into groups according to injury exposure as expressed by parameters assigned to a given group.

### Claim 10 (depends on 9)

The system of claim 9, the medical mitigation response modeler logic comprising instructions further adapted to model the medical mitigation response using stock-and-flow modeling by moving the given group through a plurality of stocks according to the parameters assigned to the given group.

### Claim 11 (depends on 10)

The system of claim 10, the medical mitigation response modeler logic comprising instructions further adapted to:
assign the given group to an injured stock following an attack event; and
assign the given group a time for symptom onset parameter.

### Claim 12 (depends on 11)

The system of claim 11, the medical mitigation response modeler logic comprising instructions further adapted to:
move the given group from the injured stock to a symptomatic stock after countdown of the time for symptom onset parameter; and
assign the given group a time for admission event.

### Claim 13 (depends on 12)

The system of claim 12, the medical mitigation response modeler logic comprising instructions further adapted to:
move the given group from the symptomatic stock to an access to medical care stock after countdown of the time for admission event; and
assign the given group a time to treatment.

### Claim 14 (depends on 13)

The system of claim 13, the medical mitigation response modeler logic comprising instructions further adapted to:
move the given group from the access to medical care stock to a candidates for treatment stock after countdown of the time to treatment; and
route the given group, by performing checks using a tiered approach, into a treatment stock.

### Claim 15

A tangible non-transitory computer-readable medium having stored thereon computer-executable instructions that, if executed by a computing device, cause the computing device to:
(a) receive user input including parameters for generating and modeling;
(b) generate a scenario based on the user input and an iterative subset of scenario parameters, the user input indicating an indoor explosion target or an outdoor explosion target, wherein the computer-executable instructions, if executed by a computing device, further cause the computing device to communicate with geospatial databases, retrieve geospatial data from the geospatial databases, and model the geospatial data based on a three-dimensional grid of cells, the computer-executable instructions, if executed by a computing device, further causing the computing device to discretize space representing the scenario into the three-dimensional grid of cells;
(c) generate an explosive device model based on the user input and an iterative subset of explosive device parameters;
(d) model propagation of hazards into the scenario based on the user input and an iterative subset of hazard parameters, the computer-executable instructions, if executed by a computing device, further causing the computing device to apply the hazard parameters to the three-dimensional grid of cells, the hazards corresponding to detonation of the explosive device model;
(e) model injuries, corresponding to modeling propagation of hazards into the scenario, based on an iterative subset of injury parameters, the computer-executable instructions, if executed by a computing device, further causing the computing device to apply population density to the three-dimensional grid of cells;
(f) model a medical mitigation response based on the injuries and an iterative subset of medical mitigation parameters;
the scenario parameters, the explosive device parameters, the hazard parameters, the injury parameters, and the medical mitigation parameters being distributions applied to Monte-Carlo probabilistic simulations to generate and model the scenario, the explosion device model, the propagation of hazards and injuries, and the medical mitigation response;
(g) iterate based on the iterative subsets of scenario parameters, the explosive device parameters, the hazard parameters, the injury parameters, and the medical mitigation parameters until the discretized space representing the scenario is covered, to thereby generate the scenario, generate the explosive device model, model propagation of hazards, model injuries, and model the medical mitigation response; and
(h) generate a medical mitigation response record based on a plurality of injury outcomes from the modeling of injuries corresponding to the iterating.

### Claim 16 (depends on 15)

The tangible non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 15, wherein the instructions, if executed, cause the computing device to assign victims into groups according to injury exposure as expressed by parameters assigned to a given group.

### Claim 17 (depends on 16)

The tangible non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 16, further comprising instructions that, if executed, cause the computing device to model the medical mitigation response using stock-and-flow modeling by moving the given group through a plurality of stocks according to the parameters assigned to the given group.

### Claim 18 (depends on 17)

The tangible non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 17, further comprising instructions that, if executed, cause the computing device to:
assign the given group to an injured stock following an attack event; and
assign the given group a time for symptom onset parameter.

### Claim 19 (depends on 18)

The tangible non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 18, further comprising instructions that, if executed, cause the computing device to:
move the given group from the injured stock to a symptomatic stock after countdown of the time for symptom onset parameter; and
assign the given group a time for admission event.

### Claim 20 (depends on 19)

The tangible non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 19, further comprising instructions that, if executed, cause the computing device to:
move the given group from the symptomatic stock to an access to medical care stock after countdown of the time for admission event; and
assign the given group a time to treatment.

### Claim 21 (depends on 20)

The tangible non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 20, further comprising instructions that, if executed, cause the computing device to:
move the given group from the access to medical care stock to a candidates for treatment stock after countdown of the time to treatment; and
route the given group, by performing checks using a tiered approach, into a treatment stock.