Space weather forecasting

A system for improving a Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) by forecasting transport of a region of plasma density enhancement within a polar region, the system comprising:

• a processor;
• a convection model for predicting electrostatic potential distribution within the polar region over time;
• a non-transitory computer-readable medium storing instructions that are operative upon execution by the processor to:
• determine total electron content distribution within the polar region;
• determine whether reconnection is occurring;
• based on determining that the reconnection is occurring:
• identify a region of plasma density enhancement using the total electron content distribution;
• calculate a velocity of at least a portion of the plasma density enhancement using the convection model,
• forecast a region of plasma density enhancement over time;
• predict interruptions and/or disturbances to the GNSS signals based on the forecast;
• and
• use the GNSS based on the prediction to thereby improve the reliability of outputs from the GNSS.

A non-transitory computer readable medium, executed by a computer, cause the computer to perform operations, the operations comprising:

• providing a convection model for predicting electrostatic potential distribution within the polar region over time;
• determining total electron content distribution within the polar region;
• determining whether reconnection is occurring;
• based on determining that the reconnection is occurring:
• identifying a region of plasma density enhancement using the total electron content distribution;
• calculating a velocity of at least a portion of the plasma density enhancement using the convection model,
• forecasting a region of plasma density enhancement over time;
• predicting interruptions and/or disturbances to the GNSS signals based on the forecast;
• and
• using the GNSS based on the prediction to thereby improve the reliability of outputs from the GNSS.