# US 12,182,177 B2 · Methods and systems for classifying database records by introducing time dependency into time-homogeneous probability models

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- Number: US 12,182,177 B2
- Document ID: US12182177B2
- Status: Granted
- Kind: B2
- Application number: 18/462,642
- Filed: 2023-09-07
- Published: 2023-12-28
- Granted: 2024-12-31
- Earliest claimed: 2020-08-05
- Assignees: Capital One Services, LLC
- Applicants: Capital One Services, LLC
- Inventors: Hao Hua Huang; Bjorn Kwok
- Web page: https://patentgrep.com/patent/US12182177B2

## CPC

- G06F 16/285: {Clustering or classification}
- G06F 16/13: File access structures, e.g. distributed indices (arrangements of input from, or output to, record carriers G06F3/06)
- G06F 16/2477: {Temporal data queries}
- G06F 16/248: Presentation of query results
- G06F 17/18: for evaluating statistical data {, e.g. average values, frequency distributions, probability functions, regression analysis (forecasting specially adapted for a specific administrative, business or logistic context G06Q10/04)}
- G06N 7/01: Probabilistic graphical models, e.g. probabilistic networks
- G06N 20/00: Machine learning
- G06F 16/2462: {Approximate or statistical queries}
- G06N 3/084: Backpropagation, e.g. using gradient descent
- G06F: ELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING (computer systems based on specific computational models G06N)
- G06N: COMPUTING ARRANGEMENTS BASED ON SPECIFIC COMPUTATIONAL MODELS

## Abstract

Methods and systems are described herein for improving data processing efficiency of classifying user files in a database. More particularly, methods and systems are described herein for improving data processing efficiency of classifying user files in a database in which the user files have a temporal element. The methods and system described herein accomplish these improvements by introducing time dependency into time-homogeneous probability models. Once time dependency has been introduced into the time-homogeneous probability models, these models may be used to improve the data processing efficiency of classifying the user files that feature a temporal element.

## Claims

### Claim 1

A system for improving data processing efficiency of classifying user files in a database into disparate states by introducing time dependency into time-homogeneous probability models, the system comprising:
cloud-based storage circuitry configured to store a user record for a user;
cloud-based control circuitry configured to:
receiving a request to determine respective probabilities that the user record for a user belongs to each of a plurality of user record states, wherein the plurality of user record states comprises user record states defined by a time period for which the user record has been delinquent and a user record state corresponding to a charge-off of the user record;
retrieving a user record history for the user record, wherein the user record history comprises periodic status checks;
determining a number of the periodic status checks in the user record history;
selecting a first probability model of a plurality of probability models based on the number of the periodic status checks in the user record history corresponding to a first range, wherein the first probability model comprises a time-inhomogeneous Markov chain; and
receiving a first output of the first probability model indicating the respective probabilities that the user record for the user belongs to each of the plurality of user record states; and
cloud-based input/output circuitry configured to generate for display, in a user interface, a recommendation based on the first output.

### Claim 2

A method of improving data processing efficiency of classifying user files in a database into disparate states by introducing time dependency into time-homogeneous probability models, the method comprising:
receiving a request to determine respective probabilities that a user record for a user belongs to each of a plurality of user record states, wherein the plurality of user record states comprises user record states defined by a time period for which the user record has been delinquent;
retrieving a user record history for the user record, wherein the user record history comprises periodic status checks;
determining a number of the periodic status checks in the user record history;
selecting a first probability model of a plurality of probability models based on the number of the periodic status checks in the user record history corresponding to a first range, wherein the first probability model comprises a time-inhomogeneous Markov chain;
receiving a first output of the first probability model indicating the respective probabilities that the user record for the user belongs to each of the plurality of user record states; and
generating a recommendation based on the first output.

### Claim 3 (depends on 2)

The method of claim 2, wherein the time-inhomogeneous Markov chain comprises a transition probability matrix is conditional on a statement to account for differences in behavior between pre-diabolical risk and post-diabolical risk.

### Claim 4 (depends on 2)

The method of claim 2, further comprising:
incrementing a current time period to generate a new time period: and
reapplying the first probability to the new time period.

### Claim 5 (depends on 2)

The method of claim 2, wherein the recommendation indicates a pre-diabolical and post-diabolical accuracy at a predetermined interval.

### Claim 6 (depends on 2)

The method of claim 2, further comprising:
selecting a second probability model of the plurality of probability models based on the number of the periodic status checks in the user record history corresponding to a second range;
processing a feature input using the second probability model;
receiving a second output of the second probability model indicating the respective probabilities that the user record for the user belongs to each of the plurality of user record states; and
generating a recommendation based on the second output.

### Claim 7 (depends on 2)

The method of claim 2, wherein the first probability model is a Markov chain.

### Claim 8 (depends on 2)

The method of claim 2, wherein the first probability model uses transition probability matrices to forecast a probability of an action related to the user record.

### Claim 9 (depends on 2)

The method of claim 2, wherein the first output is a probability distribution row vector.

### Claim 10 (depends on 2)

The method of claim 2, wherein the first range corresponds to a number from 6 to 10.

### Claim 11 (depends on 6)

The method of claim 6, wherein the second range corresponds to a number greater than 11.

### Claim 12 (depends on 2)

The method of claim 2, wherein the first range is based on the number of the user record states.

### Claim 13 (depends on 2)

The method of claim 2, wherein the number of the user record states is 11.

### Claim 14 (depends on 2)

The method of claim 2, wherein the plurality of user record states comprises a user record state corresponding to a charge-off of the user record.

### Claim 15

A non-transitory, computer-readable media for improving data processing efficiency of classifying user files in a database into disparate states by introducing time dependency into time-homogeneous probability models, comprising instructions that, when executed by one or more processors, cause operations comprising:
receiving a request to determine respective probabilities that a user record for a user belongs to each of a plurality of user record states, wherein the plurality of user record states comprises user record states defined by a time period for which the user record has been delinquent, and wherein the plurality of user record states comprises a user record state corresponding to charge-off of the user record;
retrieving a user record history for the user record, wherein the user record history comprises periodic status checks;
determining a number of the periodic status checks in the user record history;
selecting a first probability model of a plurality of probability models based on the number of the periodic status checks in the user record history corresponding to a first range;
receiving a first output of the first probability model indicating the respective probabilities that the user record for the user belongs to each of the plurality of user record states; and
generating a recommendation based on the first output.

### Claim 16 (depends on 15)

The non-transitory, computer-readable media of claim 15, wherein the instructions further cause operations comprising:
selecting a second probability model of the plurality of probability models based on the number of the periodic status checks in the user record history corresponding to a second range;
processing a feature input using the second probability model;
receiving a second output of the second probability model indicating the respective probabilities that the user record for the user belongs to each of the plurality of user record states; and
generating a recommendation based on the second output.

### Claim 17 (depends on 15)

The non-transitory, computer-readable media of claim 15, wherein the first probability model is a Markov chain.

### Claim 18 (depends on 15)

The non-transitory, computer-readable media of claim 15, wherein the first probability model uses transition probability matrices to forecast a status change related to the user record.

### Claim 19 (depends on 15)

The non-transitory, computer-readable media of claim 15, wherein the first output is a probability distribution row vector.

### Claim 20 (depends on 15)

The non-transitory, computer-readable media of claim 15, wherein the first range corresponds to a number from 6 to 10.
